24Q1 net profit of 870 million yuan/YoY +35%, maintaining the “plus” rating company released its quarterly report for the year 24 on April 29, achieving revenue of 4.499 billion yuan, +24.5% YoY, and net profit of 870 million yuan (after deducting 857 million yuan), +35% YoY /month-on-month +44% (not +46% YoY). We expect the company's net profit to be 37/46/52 billion yuan respectively for 24-26, corresponding EPS of 1.20/1.49/1.68 yuan. Combined with comparable company valuation levels (Wind agreed to expect 17xPE in 24), considering the company's low share of pharmaceutical-related business, we will give the company 17 xPE in 24, with a target price of 20.4 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
The rise in nutritional product prices boosted profits, and the fragrance and new materials sector contributed an increase of 24Q1. The price of vitamin A/vitamin E, the company's main product showed a bottom improvement trend, and the price of methionine also increased year-on-year. According to Boya Hexun, the average market prices for vitamin A/vitamin E/methionine in the Q1 quarter were 8.1/6.4/22,000 yuan/ton, respectively, -8%/-13%/+22% (+12%/+3% month-on-month), and new projects in the fragrance and new materials sector continued to contribute more. 3.3pct/month-on-month ratio +3.6pct.
The main product boom continues to recover, and new projects are progressing in an orderly manner to support future growth. According to Boya Hexun, the prices of vitamin A, vitamin E, and methionine were 8.5/7.0 per 22,000 yuan/ton on April 29, respectively, +17%/+18%/+1.4% compared to the beginning of the year. We believe that with export demand support combined with the optimization of the supply pattern at low prices, the product boom is expected to continue to recover. According to the company's annual report for 23 years, the second phase of the 250,000-ton 1-year methionine project in the nutrition sector has been completed, the Taurine/Vitamin B5 project with an annual output of 3.102,500 tons has been put into production, and construction of the 180,000 ton 1-year liquid methionine project built with Sinopec has begun. The annual production of 5,000 tons of menthol in the flavor and fragrance sector was successfully put into operation. The third phase of the PPS project with an annual output of 7,000 tons in the new materials sector has been put into production, and the nitrile/HA project has been successfully tested. With the launch of many new projects, the company is expected to usher in a new round of high-quality growth.
Risk warning: the risk that downstream demand will continue to be sluggish; the risk that the production schedule of new products will not meet expectations.