2H FY24 Preview: Gradual recovery amid easing competition
2H FY24 Preview: Gradual recovery amid easing competition
We expect FY24 revenue to grow 14%YoY and see a sequential recovery led by core HRM and some pick up in recruitment modules. Better competitive environment should also set Beisen up well for FY25 growth. Reiterate OW.
我們預計，24財年收入將同比增長14％，並將在覈心人力資源管理的帶動下實現連續復甦，招聘模塊也有所回升。更好的競爭環境也應該爲北森爲25財年的增長做好準備。重申 OW。
We forecast 2H FY24 revenue to grow 14%YoY:
我們預計24財年下半年收入將同比增長14％：
We expect ARR (annualized recurring revenue) to grow 16.3%YoY in FY24 to reach Rmb756mn driven by solid growth form Core HRM (Human Resource Management) and growth pick up in recruitment modules. Despite similar revenue growth in 1H and 2H at 14%, we expect ARR growth to have accelerated meaningfully from 5% to 16% in the same period, which better reflects the underlying demand trend. Business momentum saw improvement in CY24 with new bookings and ARR accelerating sequentially. Ex-SBC gross margin should further improve by ~6ppt to 65% for the full year. We expect ex-SBC opex to decrease 23%YoY as total headcount was reduced to ~1,800 from 2,215 in FY23. As a result of cost control, we expect adjusted net losses to narrow to Rmb149mn.
我們預計，在Core HRM（人力資源管理）穩健增長和招聘模塊增長回升的推動下，24財年ARR（年化經常性收入）將同比增長16.3％，達到7.56億元人民幣。儘管上半年和下半年的收入增長相似，爲14％，但我們預計同期ARR增長將從5％顯著加速至16％，這更好地反映了潛在的需求趨勢。24財年的業務勢頭有所改善，新預訂量和ARR環比增長。除瑞士銀行以外的全年毛利率應進一步提高約6個百分點至65％。我們預計，由於員工總數從23財年的2,215人減少至約1,800人，除瑞士銀行以外的運營支出將同比下降23％。由於成本控制，我們預計調整後的淨虧損將縮小至人民幣1.49億元。
Easing competition:
緩解競爭：
We think the competitive environment in the HR software space improved in 2023 after an industry downturn and less private equity financing. Most long tail private players are experiencing business continuity issues, but Beisen is in a better position with close to OCF breakeven and Rmb1.6bn cash equivalents on hand. This translate into less pressure on sales and marketing as well as a lower discounts during tenders. The only notable competitor now in Kingdee's HR module, which Beisen believes is manageable as its products/targeted markets are differentiated.
我們認爲，在行業低迷和私募股權融資減少之後，人力資源軟件領域的競爭環境在2023年有所改善。大多數長尾私人企業都遇到了業務連續性問題，但北森處於更好的境地，接近OCF盈虧平衡，手頭有16億元人民幣的現金等價物。這意味着銷售和營銷壓力減輕，招標期間的折扣也降低。這是金蝶人力資源模塊中目前唯一值得注意的競爭對手，北森認爲，由於其產品/目標市場存在差異化，該模塊是可以控制的。
Beisen clear industry leader:
北森透明行業領導者：
The HR software market (Payroll + HCM) was US $1.1bn in China, according to IDC in 2023, up 16%YoY on a constant currency basis and the public cloud market grew faster at 22%. Beisen was a clear leader in the market with 13.9% revenue share in the cloud market followed by SAP at 9.8% and Yonyou at 6.0%. In terms of Beisen's revenue mix, recruitment (talent acquisition) declined due to previous weak labor market, and the remainder of its business remains steady.
根據IDC的數據，2023年中國的人力資源軟件市場（薪資+HCM）爲11億美元，按固定貨幣計算，同比增長16％，公有云市場增長更快，達到22％。北森顯然是市場的領導者，在雲市場的收入份額爲13.9％，其次是SAP的9.8％和Yonyou的6.0％。就北森的收入結構而言，由於之前勞動力市場疲軟，招聘（人才招聘）有所下降，其餘業務保持穩定。
What to expect in FY25?
在 25 財年可以期待什麼？
We think topline could continue to grow in the 15-17% range with more stable retention rates. CoreHR should remain the key revenue driver. Headcount is likely to remain stable at 1,800, which also translates to more stabilized opex growth. The company's cash flow turnaround target for FY25 remains intact.
我們認爲，在留存率更穩定的情況下，收入可能會在15-17％的範圍內繼續增長。CoreHR應該仍然是關鍵的收入驅動力。員工人數可能穩定在1,800人，這也意味着運營支出增長更加穩定。該公司25財年的現金流週轉目標保持不變。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。