Source: Finance Association
① China's official manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months; ② Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the China Purchasing Managers' Index for April 2024.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. It was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to resume its development trend. In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. It is still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry continues to expand.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the China Purchasing Managers' Index for April 2024.
I. Operation of the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
In April, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. It was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to resume its development trend.
In terms of enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 50.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; and the PMI for small enterprises was 50.3%, the same as last month.
Looking at the classification index, among the five classification indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index, and the supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below the critical point.
The production index was 52.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production activity of manufacturing enterprises continues to accelerate.
The new orders index was 51.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, and continued above the critical point, indicating that demand in the manufacturing market continued to recover.
The raw material inventory index was 48.1%, the same as last month, below the critical point, indicating that stocks of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decline.
The employee index was 48.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment in manufacturing enterprises.
The supplier delivery time index was 50.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and still above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry continues to accelerate.
II. Operation of China's Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. It is still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry continues to expand.
By industry, the index of business activity in the construction industry was 56.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the index of business activity in the service sector was 50.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the index of business activity in industries such as railway transportation, road transport, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services is in a high boom range above 55.0%; the index of business activity in the catering, capital market services, real estate and other industries is below the critical point.
The new orders index was 46.3%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in demand in the non-manufacturing market. By industry, the index of new orders in the construction industry was 45.3%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month; the index of new orders in the service sector was 46.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
The input price index was 51.1%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an increase in the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities. By industry, the construction industry input price index was 52.2%, up 4.0 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry input price index was 50.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 49.4%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and still below the critical point, indicating that the overall decline in non-manufacturing sales prices has narrowed. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry was 48.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price index for the service industry was 49.5%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.
The employee index was 47.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the employment sentiment of non-manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the index of workers in the construction industry was 46.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the index of workers in the service sector was 47.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
The expected business activity index was 57.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. It continues to be in a high boom range, indicating that non-manufacturing companies continue to be optimistic about recent market developments. By industry, the expected index of business activity in the construction industry was 56.1%, down 3.1 percentage points from the previous month; the expected index of business activity in the service sector was 57.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.
III. Operation of China's Composite PMI Output Index
In April, the composite PMI output index was 51.7%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand.
China's purchasing managers' index continued to expand in April
——Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the April 2024 China Purchasing Managers' Index
On April 30, 2024, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained this.
In April, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 50.4%, 51.2%, and 51.7%, respectively, down 0.4, 1.8, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The three major indices continued to expand in the expansion range, and China's overall economic sentiment level continued to expand.
1. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index expanded for two consecutive months
In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%. It was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to recover.
(1) Enterprise production continues to accelerate. The production index was 52.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the highest since April 2023. Production expansion of manufacturing enterprises has accelerated. From an industry perspective, the production indices of industries such as chemical fiber, rubber and plastic products, railway ships, aerospace equipment, computer communication and electronic equipment are all in the high boom range above 55.0%, and enterprise production capacity is being released relatively quickly.
(2) Market demand continues to expand. The new orders index was 51.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. It is still in the expansion range, and demand in the manufacturing market continues to recover. Looking at the external demand situation, the index of new export orders was 50.6%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to expand, indicating that the overall export business of enterprises continued to improve. From an industry perspective, the new order index and the new export order index for the food, alcohol, beverage, refined tea, chemical fiber, rubber and plastic products, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment industries are all above 53.0%, and domestic and foreign market demand for related industries has increased.
(3) The PMI of enterprises of all sizes is above the critical point. The PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. It is still in the expansion range, and large enterprises continue to operate smoothly; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 50.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; and the PMI for small enterprises was 50.3%, the same as last month. Meanwhile, the production index of enterprises of all sizes and the index of new orders were in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and production and demand continued to be released.
(4) New kinetic energy continues to expand relatively rapidly. The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 51.3% and 53.0% respectively, down 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. They continue to be in the expansion range, and are both higher than the overall manufacturing industry, and the high-end manufacturing industry has maintained relatively rapid development. The consumer goods sector PMI was 50.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to expand.
(5) Market expectations are generally stable. The expected index of production and operation activity was 55.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. It continues to be in a high boom range, indicating that the confidence of manufacturing enterprises in recent market development is generally stable. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as food, alcohol, beverages, refined tea, railway ships, aerospace equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment has all been in a high boom range of 59.0% for two consecutive months, and enterprises are more optimistic about the development of the industry.
Although the manufacturing PMI continued to be in the expansion range this month, the survey results showed that the proportion of companies reflecting high raw material costs was 46.0%, up 4.2 percentage points from the previous month. At the same time, the purchase price index for major raw materials rose to 54.0%, and the cost pressure on manufacturing enterprises increased.
II. Non-manufacturing business activity index continues to expand
In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.2%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, and still above the critical point. The non-manufacturing industry continued to expand.
(1) The level of prosperity in the service sector has declined somewhat. The index of business activity in the service sector was 50.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the expansion of the service sector has slowed. From an industry perspective, production and operation continued to recover in most industries. Of the 21 industries surveyed, the business activity index was above the critical point, an increase of 3 over the previous month, and the service industry boom has expanded. Among them, the index of business activity in industries such as railway transportation, road transport, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services is in a high boom range above 55.0%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly. At the same time, the index of business activity in capital market services, real estate and other industries is running low, and the level of prosperity is weak. Judging from market expectations, the expected index of business activity is 57.4%, which continues to remain in a high boom range, and service companies continue to be optimistic about market development prospects.
(2) The expansion of the construction industry has accelerated slightly. As infrastructure construction accelerated, the construction industry business activity index rose 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 56.3%, and continues to be in a high boom range. Among them, the index of business activity in the civil engineering and construction industry was 63.7%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to a high boom range, and the construction progress of enterprises accelerated. Judging from market expectations, the expected business activity index is 56.1%, which continues to be in a high boom range, indicating that construction companies are generally optimistic about the development expectations of the industry.
3. The composite PMI output index is in the expansion range
In April, the composite PMI output index was 51.7%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, are 52.9% and 51.2%, respectively.
editor/tolk