Source: Zhitong Finance
As of April 24, the number of hotel reservations in popular cities on the platform nearly doubled compared to last year.
According to the Ministry of Transport's regular press conference, it is estimated that during the “May 1st” holiday period, the average daily movement of people across regions will reach more than 270 million people, exceeding the same period in 2023 and 2019. Among them, the proportion of people traveling by car will reach about 80%. Furthermore, according to flight managers, the average number of daily flights during the May Day holiday in 2024 exceeds 14,900, which is expected to increase 4.6% compared to 2019 and 3.3% compared to the May 1st holiday in 2023. As of April 24, the number of hotel reservations in popular cities on the platform had nearly doubled compared to last year. Beijing, Chongqing, Changsha, Wuhan, Chengdu, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing, and Qingdao were popular hotel reservation cities for the May 1st holiday this year. Related targets: Huazhu Group-S (01179), Shangri-La (Asia) (00069), Fosun Tourism Culture (01992), Ctrip Group-S (09961), Haichang Ocean Park (02255).
According to the data, during the “May 1st” holiday this year, the popularity of domestic travel reservations for many services continued to surpass the same period in 2019, and both the number of reservations per capita and the amount of reservations per person increased. Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanjing, Xi'an, and Changsha are the top ten most popular destinations for holiday reservations. Furthermore, outbound travel saw a peak in bookings, and bookings for related services reached a strong increase of nearly 100% on the basis of a rapid rebound last year. At the same time, thanks to the restoration of international routes and increased supply, this year's “May Day” outbound travel is more cost-effective than last year.
In terms of hotel reservations, the latest data released by Where to Go shows that as of April 24, the number of hotel reservations in popular cities on the platform has nearly doubled compared to last year. Beijing, Chongqing, Changsha, Wuhan, Chengdu, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing, and Qingdao are popular cities to book hotels for the May 1st holiday this year.
According to data from Huazhu Group, as of April 23, the hotel reservation rate for this year's May Day holiday has remained the same as last year's May Day holiday reservation rate, and the trend continues to rise. Among them, the reservation rate for hotels in Chengdu and Chongqing increased 3% compared to last year's May Day holiday reservation rate. “Emerging influencer” Tianshui's hotel reservation rate increased by 10%.
Furthermore, during the “May 1st” holiday this year, the comprehensive reservation rate of hotels in popular tourist provinces and cities of Jinjiang Hotels (China) is close to 80%. As of April 26, the overall reservation rate for the “May Day” holiday at Jinjiang Hotel (China) increased by more than 6% compared to the same period last year, and the overall reservation trend was good. According to the Jinjiang Hotel (China region), it is expected that there will be a new peak in reservations as we approach the “May 1st” holiday.
According to Ctrip data, the tourism market in Tier 4 cities and below, especially in the county area, grew significantly. Hotel reservation orders in the May 1st holiday county market increased 68% year on year, and ticket orders for scenic spots increased 151% year on year, which is higher than the national market. Travel reservation orders for users in Tier 4 cities and below increased by 140% year over year, which is significantly higher than that of higher-tier cities.
In terms of industry, by the end of 2023, the number of hotel chains in China was about 90,600, an increase of 28% over 710,000 in 2022. Based on the number of guest room chains, the hotel chain rate increased from 38.75% last year to 40.95%. Among them, the chain rate of mid-range and luxury hotels all exceeded 55%.
As of December 31, 2023, the total number of lodging facilities in China is about 610,000, of which there are about 320,000 hotel facilities; the total number of hotel rooms is about 16.5 million, of which the number of chain rooms is about 6.76 million. Hu Shengyang, executive vice chairman of the Hotel Digital Committee of the China Hotel Association, said that chainization and branding are the general trends in the development of China's hotel industry. Compared with the chain rate of hotel brands in developed countries, which can reach more than 60%, there is still plenty of room for hotel branding in China.
Dongxing Securities pointed out that the May Day holiday is approaching, and multiple platforms such as Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Where to Go will publish travel reservation data reports. At this stage, demand for travel continues to be released after the epidemic, compounded by the rise of leisure and leisure consumption, and the tourism market remains booming. Especially in the context of the gradual recovery of the consumer market, the travel chain is expected to maintain a relatively dominant position, and targets related to the OTA, scenic spots and hotel sectors in the travel industry chain are expected to benefit as a whole.
Galaxy Securities said that the Qingming holiday travel consumption maintained a relatively rapid increase, especially the increase in per capita travel expenditure, which mainly reflects two facts: 1) travel consumption has indeed had good demand resilience; 2) travel consumption data for New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and Qingming have all maintained good growth since this year, reflecting a decline in 2H23 travel consumption data. This should have been affected by 1H23 residents choosing to travel in retaliation, which led to an uneven distribution of demand between quarters. Based on the above analysis, the bank believes that benefiting from the good performance of the Qingming holiday travel consumption data, the market may give more optimistic growth expectations for May 1st and summer.
Related concept stocks:
$HWORLD-S (01179.HK)$: On February 21, Huazhu Group released data showing that it received more than 7.35 million visitors during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, 2.3 times the number of visitors during the Spring Festival holiday last year. The hotel occupancy rate increased by more than 20 percentage points over last year's Spring Festival holiday, and nearly 12 percentage points higher than the 2019 Spring Festival holiday hotel occupancy rate according to a comparable scale.
$SHANGRI-LA ASIA (00069.HK)$: Shangri-La management pointed out that in 2024, management expects the average room revenue in China to return to 105% to 110% in 2019, but the average overseas room revenue will remain flat or grow at a low annual rate, benefiting from continued domestic travel demand and a continued recovery in international travel.
$FOSUN TOURISM (01992.HK)$: The company's Club Med Taicang Alps International Ski Resort officially opened at the end of October. The resort includes Alps Ski Resort, Alps Ice and Snow Park, ClubMed Mediterranean Day Ark Taicang Resort, Alps Time Scene, Alpine Camp, and the six major theme experience areas of the Alps Light and Shadow World.
$TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$: Ctrip announced that it will provide a full range of services for Chinese tourists visiting Thailand in terms of price discounts and service guarantees for products such as air tickets and hotels. Within five months of the visa-free visa, the plan is to invest 100 million yuan in subsidies to provide price discounts to users who book Thai hotels.
$HAICHANG HLDG (02255.HK)$: According to statistics, Haichang Ocean Park received nearly 750,000 visitors during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, an increase of more than 1 times over the 2023 Spring Festival, and an increase of more than 130% over the 2019 Spring Festival. Among them, Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park had 270,000 visitors for 8 days during the Spring Festival holiday. The maximum number of visitors in a single day was 51,000 in the first three days of the new year. The two major supporting hotels — Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park Resort and Ultraman Theme Park Hotel — were all fully booked during the Spring Festival, with a 100% occupancy rate for 20 consecutive days.
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