Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report.
Comment:
The company's 2024Q1 performance grew steadily. As a leading high-end liquor company, the company has strong brand influence and high market recognition, and achieved steady growth in its performance in the first quarter of this year. With 2024Q1, the company achieved total revenue of 46.485 billion yuan, an increase of 18.04% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 24.065 billion yuan, an increase of 15.73% over the previous year. The company plans to achieve a year-on-year increase in total revenue of about 15% in 2024. The steady growth performance in the first quarter lays a good foundation for achieving the company's operating goals this year.
2024Q1 The company's products and channel structure are developing in a balanced manner. By product, the company's Maotai liquor developed at the same time as the series wine series. In 2024Q1, Maotai Liquor achieved operating revenue of 39.707 billion yuan, an increase of 17.75% over the previous year; the serial wine series achieved revenue of 5.936 billion yuan, an increase of 18.39% over the previous year. Among them, Maotai liquor achieved double-digit growth mainly due to the price increase in flying sky, compounding the volume of large single products such as 100ml of Feitian and Premium products. Looking at it by channel, the pace of dealer delivery accelerated in the first quarter of this year, driving the company's wholesale channel to grow at an impressive rate. In contrast, iMaotai's growth rate has slowed down. According to specific data, in 2024Q1, the company's wholesale channel achieved revenue of 26.324 billion yuan, an increase of 25.78% over the previous year; the direct management channel achieved revenue of 19.319 billion yuan, an increase of 8.49% over the previous year.
The company's gross margin increased steadily in 2024Q1, and taxes and the like disrupted profit levels. 2024Q1, the company's gross margin was 92.61%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points over the previous year, maintaining a relatively stable level. In terms of expenses, the company's 2024Q1 sales expense rate/management expense ratio/financial expense ratio were 2.45%/4.44%/-1.05%, respectively, up 0.53 pct/ down 0.67 pct/0.02 pct year-on-year, respectively. The increase in the company's sales expense ratio in the first quarter was mainly due to the gradual return to normalization of expenses. The company's 2024Q1 net interest rate was 51.77%, down 1.04 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to taxes and fees disrupting the overall level.
Maintain a buy rating. The company's earnings per share in 2024/2025 are expected to be 69.70 yuan and 81.37 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation is 25 times and 21 times, respectively. As a leader in the liquor industry, the company's Maotai liquor and series of wines have a clear two-wheel drive strategy, and the structure continues to be optimized. With the release of production capacity, there is room for further increases in the volume and price of the company. Maintain a “buy” rating for the company.
Risk warning. Product upgrades fell short of expectations, iMaotai's operations fell short of expectations, direct sales channel expansion fell short of expectations, production capacity release fell short of expectations, macroeconomic fluctuations, etc.