Financial Services Association, April 29 (Reporter Hu Haoqiong) “I've never been to China before; I'm very interested in everything here.” Recently, David, who experienced handmade glass at the Shanghai Glass Museum, told the Financial Federation that this is his first time making glass, which is very novel. He is from Scotland and arrived in Shanghai on a cruise. Afterwards, he will visit the Bund at night to embark on his 3-day trip to China.

The “May Day” holiday is approaching. The Financial Services Association reporter learned that the biggest difference between this year's “May Day” holiday and last year is the reentry of the cruise market. In addition, there are also changes such as the heating up of the inbound travel market and the expansion of the range of outbound travel destination choices compared to last year.

According to air travel data, as of April 29, during the “May 1st” holiday period, the number of inbound and outbound air ticket reservations exceeded 900,000. Among them, the number of outbound air ticket reservations increased 1.2 times compared to last year's “May Day”; the number of inbound air ticket reservations increased 1.4 times compared to “May Day” last year.

However, domestic and international air ticket prices have declined somewhat as we approach “May 1st.” Some experts believe that the different ticket prices for different routes still need to be looked at the overall “May Day” fare level.

Cruise ship market momentum

“Cruise products are trending this year. The company's long- and short-term cruise sales are very good. Long-term cruise products to Europe and North America are very popular, and domestic tourists are beginning to accept foreign cruise travel methods.” Li Mengran, media PR manager of Zhongxin Travel (002707.SZ), told the CFA reporter that sales of short-term pure Japanese routes were also very popular. Even in March, quite a few travelers booked the “Eleven” voyage.

On April 26, “Ocean Spectrum” returned to the Chinese market after a lapse of more than 4 years. Liu Zinan, president of Royal Caribbean Cruises China and North Asia, revealed that since the issuance of tickets in June last year, ferry ticket reservations have been booming and have already exceeded the reservation level for the same period in 2019.

On the same day, more than 4,000 international tourists arrived at Wusongkou International Cruise Port on the “Ocean Spectrum” cruise ship, setting a record for the highest number of international tourists entering China by single boat since the port opened. This was also the largest inbound tour group to visit Shanghai before the “May 1st” holiday.

The reporter saw at Wusongkou International Cruise Port that the large domestic cruise ship “Aida Mordu” also called at the port on the same day.

Zhou Weihong, deputy general manager of Chunqiu Tourism, said that with increased competition in the cruise market, cruise tourism has ushered in multiple dimensions. Spring and autumn travel also combines the characteristics of the “China Merchants Eton” cruise ship, using the “airplane to cruise back” or “cruise back to the plane” method to create a variety of “airplane+cruise” in-depth tour products to Japan in line with the trend.

The inbound travel market heats up

The recovery in the cruise market is only a microcosm of the rise in inbound and outbound tourism.

“Since spring of this year, around May 1st, there has been an obvious change in inbound tourism, which is that the number of countries and regions with visitors has begun to increase. In the past, more people came from Southeast Asian countries, but now, apart from Southeast Asian countries, the number of international visitors from Hungary, Australia and other places has increased markedly.” Zhou Weihong introduced it to the Financial Federation reporter.

Li Mengran also revealed that the number of the company's monthly inbound tour teams has increased compared to the beginning of the year, and currently they are mainly business teams.

Cruise entry is visa-free for 15 days. Since December of last year, China has supported the visa-free policy for 6 countries, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia, as well as Switzerland, Ireland, Hungary, Austria, Belgium, and Luxembourg since March 14 this year, domestic inbound travel orders have increased dramatically. According to Ctrip travel data, inbound travel bookings for the “May 1st” holiday increased 130% year over year.

On the product side, Pan Jiaqi, product manager for inbound spring and autumn travel, said that now personalized and customized content is more popular with inbound tourists.

According to reports, Ctrip Trip.com recently launched the first “Shanghai International Transit Passenger Half-Day Tour” program to encourage more transit travelers to enter Shanghai. As the “May 1st” holiday approaches, it is expected that a large number of foreign travelers will transit through Shanghai to other destinations.

Expansion of the scope of outbound travel

“Last year, most domestic tourists would choose to visit surrounding cities, travel across provinces, and then consider a short trip out of Southeast Asia. Although the Southeast Asian travel market is still booming this year, there are more visitors to Europe or other niche destinations.” Li Mengran said.

Judging from Zhongxin's travel reservation situation, the main outbound travel destinations for “May Day” this year. In the short term, Japan, Thailand, and Dubai are the most popular. On the long-term side, tourist destinations across Europe are growing rapidly. France, Italy, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Eastern Europe, and Northern Europe have fully blossomed, and products such as European long-haul cruises have become new growth points in the European travel market.

In terms of spring and autumn travel, the number of long-term European tours from April to May has returned to the same period in 2019. As the flight season changed at the end of March, Spring Airlines (601021.SH) international flights increased, and visa convenience was added. Short-term destinations such as Bangkok, Phuket, Jeju Island, Singapore, and Chiang Mai are still popular for outbound travel during the “May 1st” holiday.

It is worth noting that there is a clear trend of early registration of “May Day” long-term outbound travel products this year, but due to the restoration of visa efficiency, the reservation cycle will be delayed compared to last year.

Judging from the long-term registration status of Zhongxin Travel for May Day Europe, the registration period for “May Day” visitors this year is at least 2 to 3 months ahead of schedule. Zhongxin Travel Spain and Portugal products enter the reservation cycle after the Spring Festival.

The spring and autumn travel department also said that since European Schengen visas can be applied for as early as 180 days in advance, many tourists have already begun planning long-term exit plans for the summer and even the second half of the year in advance. Before the holiday season, summer products involving destinations such as the United Kingdom, Western Portugal, Croatia, and the Czech Republic began accepting inquiries and reservations one after another. At the same time, visa processing operations in countries such as France, Spain, and Greece have also begun to enter a “peak period” of consultation.

In terms of air ticket reservations, air travel data shows that as of April 29, during the “May 1st” holiday period, the number of air ticket reservations from mainland China to Europe exceeded 68,000, an increase of about 1.6 times over the previous year. Air ticket bookings from mainland China to the three “New Matai” countries exceeded 88,000, an increase of about 1.3 times over the previous year.

Domestic travel is still popular, and airline capacity investment is further increasing

In terms of domestic travel, this year's “May Day” holiday situation is still booming.

According to data provided by Jinjiang Hotel (600754.SH) to the Financial Federation reporter, as of April 26, the overall reservation rate for the “May Day” holiday increased by more than 6% compared to the same period last year, and the overall booking trend was good.

A number of domestic airlines, airports and other transportation companies and departments are also expected to launch the “May 1st” crowding model.

Judging from the “May Day” transportation plan announced by China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH) today, China Eastern Airlines plans to launch more than 14,700 flights, an increase of 8.5% over last year, and the number of seats will reach 2.501,800. China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) plans to carry out an average of 102 outbound flights per day at Shanghai's two major airports, Hongqiao and Pudong, with an average of 20,000 seats per day. At the same time, China Southern Airlines plans to arrange temporary overtime from Shanghai Pudong to Changsha, Shantou, and Wuhan during the short and long holidays to increase capacity investment.

In terms of Hainan Airport (600515.SH), from May 1 to May 5, Haikou Meilan Airport is expected to complete 2,755 flight takings and 397,200 passengers, up 12.8% and 7.9% respectively from the 2023 May 1st holiday.

Domestic train ticket “ticket grabbing” is also “crazy,” and “May Day” high-speed rail tickets for many popular routes sold out quickly after they were issued. The Financial Services Association reporter also learned from Shanghai Railway Station that the 2024 Railway's “May Day” holiday period is 8 days from April 29 to May 6. The Shanghai Railway Station is expected to send 4.25 million passengers, with an average of more than 500,000 passengers per day. Last year, it is expected to send 3.82 million passengers in 8 days, with an average of 478,000 passengers per day.

Are ticket prices “diving”?

It is worth noting that air ticket prices have recently “dived”. A Financial Services Agency reporter learned from flight managers that the average price of economy class tickets for domestic and international routes has indeed declined to a certain extent. As of April 24, the average price of international air tickets (economy class) during the “May 1st” period was 2,650 yuan, while the average price was 2,650 yuan on April 17.

According to Fichang's accurate data, the average price of “May Day” domestic economy class purchased in the first week of April was over 1,000 yuan (excluding tax). By the 4th week of April, the average price of air tickets had dropped to around 700 yuan, down 38% from the first week of April.

(Source: Feichangzhun)

In response, Xie Li, a professor at the China Civil Aviation Management Cadre College, told the Finance Association reporter that there are two main reasons for “diving” in ticket prices: On the one hand, the characteristics of “May Day” demand this year are different from last year. Last year was the first “May Day” after the epidemic. Demand for travel and family visits suppressed during the epidemic is concentrated, and demand is very strong, while “May Day” this year, these two types of demand tend to grow normally.

On the other hand, airlines have expectations of turning losses into profits or increasing profits from long vacations this year, concentrating on investing large amounts of capacity. Demand is expected to be high in the early stages, but demand responses have not been positive. Coupled with competition in road driving and high-speed rail, as well as competition among airlines, ticket booking results are not as good as expected. In order to seize customers, airline ticket prices are lower than early booking prices.

“However, ticket prices for different routes will vary. The individual cases do not indicate that the overall ticket price for 'May Day' is significantly lower than the price booked earlier; we also need to observe the overall results after 'May 1'.” Xie Li said.