客户新系统迭代延期导致23 年收入承压。分产品来看，23 年公司医用内窥镜业务收入3.71 亿元（+1.42%），增速放缓，主要是受美国客户新系统迭代延期的影响。公司配套美国客户的新一代内窥镜系统于2023 年9 月上市，上市后产品的市场反响较好，预计公司的内窥镜出货数量将恢复增长。目前来自美国客户未完成的在手订单共计1.73 亿元。受出口汇率、销售产品结构变化以及生产成本的综合影响，医用内窥镜业务的毛利率上升至71.26%（+1.08pct）。Matters:
The company released financial reports. Revenue for 2023 was 471 million yuan (-1.31%), net profit attributable to mother was 146 million yuan (-20.19%), and deducted non-net profit of 136 million yuan (-19.20%). 2024Q1, the company's revenue was 118 million yuan (-20.74%), net profit attributable to mother was 38 million yuan (-20.68%), and net profit after deducting non-net profit was 36 million yuan (-21.40%).
Commentary:
Delays in customer iteration of new systems weighed on revenue for 23 years. By product, the company's medical endoscopy business revenue in '23 was 371 million yuan (+1.42%), and the growth rate slowed, mainly due to the delay in iterations of new systems for US customers. The company's next-generation endoscope system for US customers was launched in September 2023. The market response for the product was good after launch, and it is expected that the company's endoscope shipments will resume growth. Currently, the total number of outstanding orders from US customers is 173 million yuan. Due to the combined effects of export exchange rates, changes in sales product structure, and production costs, the gross margin of the medical endoscopy business rose to 71.26% (+1.08pct).
The company's optical product revenue in '23 was 97 million yuan (-11.63%). Affected by the product structure, the gross margin of optical products fell to 36.47% (-8.87pct).
Domestic growth is strong. By region, the company's domestic revenue in '23 was 141 million yuan (+26.46%), and the domestic revenue share increased to 30.44% (+7.03pct). The company's endoscopic equipment products are growing strongly in the domestic market. The domestic endoscopic device customer Disco Healthcare has entered the company's top five customers; foreign revenue is 327 million yuan (-10.19%).
The domestic machine business is ready to go, and the multi-specification and small-mirror product system continues to improve. The joint subsidiary Sinopharm Xinguang's 4K ultra-high-definition endoscope system and 4K defogging endoscope have been certified one after another, and China's Stryker's TS88 4K fluorescence endoscope system (with defogging function) has also been approved for sale in China. The company's own brand of second-generation machines began to be certified one after another in November 2023, and the three domestic machine business lines are progressing steadily.
In addition, the company continues to improve the product system for extended, ultra-thin, hysteroscopes, cystoscopes, etc., and is expected to expand more domestic and overseas market space.
The high base led to a year-on-year decline in 24Q1 results. The main reason for the decline in 24Q1 performance was that major US customers continued to centrally prepare goods for the release of the new system in 2023Q1. Among them, the delivery scale in February '23 nearly doubled compared to the normal year. The high base for the same period affected 24Q1 performance.
Investment advice: Based on 23 years of performance (export orders falling short of expectations), we expect the company's net profit to be 2.2, 2.8, and 350 million yuan (the original forecast values for 24-25 were 2.1 billion yuan and 280 million yuan), with year-on-year increases of 50.0%, 28.7%, and 25.4%. EPS is 1.80, 2.31, and 2.90 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 24, 19 and 15 times, respectively. Referring to comparable companies, we gave the company a 32 times valuation in 2024, corresponding to a target price of about 58 yuan, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1. The dependence of a single major customer is high; 2. The promotion of the whole machine falls short of expectations; 3. Changes in industry policies; 4. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
