Event: On April 28, 2024, the company released the 2023 Annual Report and 2024 Quarterly Report.
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 6.101 billion yuan, +3.59% year on year; realized net profit attributable to mother of 779 million yuan, -26.46% year over year; realized deducted non-net profit of 786 million yuan, -24.79% year over year.
23Q4 achieved revenue of 1,459 million yuan, -15.29% YoY, +4.96%; realized net profit to mother of 0.28 billion yuan, -92.18% YoY, -77.60% month-on-month; realized deduction of non-net profit of RMB14 million, -95.82% YoY and -88.98% YoY.
24Q1 achieved revenue of 1,397 million yuan, -15.56% YoY, -4.29%; realized net profit to mother of 20 million yuan, -93.74% YoY, -27.16% month-on-month; realized deducted non-net profit of RMB14 million, -95.64% YoY and -0.98% YoY.
Inverters are being weighed down by inventory, and growth is expected to resume in 24. In '23, the company sold 746,700 units of inverters, achieving revenue of 4.503 billion yuan and a gross margin of 23.14%. Among them, grid-connected inverters achieved revenue of 4,064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.53%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.80pct. The main reason was that in order to maintain a competitive position, the company reduced the domestic sales gross margin by a certain margin; energy storage inverters achieved revenue of 439 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.91%, gross profit margin of 37.08%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.75 pcts. The energy storage inverter business was under pressure from Europe.
Looking ahead to 24 years, global demand for optical storage equipment is expected to continue to grow, and European household storage inventories are further removed, and the company's inverter business is expected to resume growth.
Household photovoltaic power generation systems and new energy power production business are developing rapidly. In '23, the company's household photovoltaic power generation system achieved revenue of 1,194 million yuan, an increase of 106.19% over the previous year; the new energy power production business achieved revenue of 293 million yuan, an increase of 117.06% over the previous year. The total power generation capacity of the distributed photovoltaic power plants already in operation in fiscal year 23 was 304 million kilowatts, the grid-connected electricity capacity was 286 million kilowatts, and the electricity bill revenue was 119 million yuan; in fiscal year 23, the capacity of the company's newly operated household photovoltaic power generation system was 1.55 GW. The total power generation capacity and grid-connected electricity capacity of this part of the power generation system in fiscal year 23 was 948 million kilowatts, with revenue of 301 million yuan. Benefiting from the rapid growth in demand for PV installations in 23 years, the company's household photovoltaic power generation system and new energy power production business developed rapidly.
Investment advice: We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 70.90, 93.00, and 12.084 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.2%, 31.2%, and 29.9%, respectively; net profit to mother will be 848, 11.11, and 1.48 billion yuan respectively, corresponding growth rates of 8.8%, 31.1%, and 33.2%, respectively, based on the closing price on April 29, corresponding to PE 26X, 20X, and 15X. The company's 2024-2026 inverter shipments are expected to resume growth and maintain “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies, etc.