Is a Beat in Store for ConocoPhillips (COP) in Q1 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

29 April 2024 at 12:23 pm·3-min read

ConocoPhillips COP is set to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on May 2, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings per share of $2.40 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.08. Higher oil equivalent production volumes have led to better-than-expected quarterly results. The positives were partially offset by lower average realized oil equivalent prices.

COP’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and beat the same once, delivering an average surprise of 8.5%. This is depicted in the graph below.

ConocoPhillips Price and EPS Surprise

ConocoPhillips price-eps-surprise | ConocoPhillips Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of $2.09 has witnessed five upward movements and two downward revisions over the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a 12.2% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues of $14.8 billion indicates a 4.7% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for COP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: COP’s Earnings ESP is +2.85%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at earnings of $2.15 per share, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at earnings of $2.09. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Factors to Consider

Per data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices per barrel in January, February and March were $74.15, $77.25 and $81.28, respectively, compared with $78.12, $76.83 and $73.28 in the year-ago months. The commodity prices higher than the $70-per-barrel mark were impressive and healthy.

In terms of production, ConocoPhillips, a prominent independent exploration and production company, is anticipated to report a 5.1% year-over-year increase in daily oil equivalent volumes for the first quarter. This combination of favorable commodity prices and increased production is expected to have positively impacted the company’s financial performance in the first quarter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three firms that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

MPLX LP MPLX currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.78% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The partnership is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on Apr 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPLX’s earnings is pegged at 99 cents per share, suggesting an 8.8% increase from the year-ago figure.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD presently has an Earnings ESP of +1.31% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Pioneer is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PXD’s earnings is pegged at $5.01 per share, indicating a 3.8% decline from the year-ago figure.

PBF Energy Inc. PBF has an Earnings ESP of +14.10% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player at present.

PBF Energy is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF Energy’s earnings is pegged at 55 cents per share, implying a massive year-over-year 80% decline.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

ConocoPhillips (COP) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

MPLX LP (MPLX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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ConocoPhillips Price and EPS Surprise

Estimate Trend

Earnings Whispers

Factors to Consider

Stocks to Consider

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