市场需求阶段性不足，24Q1 业绩短期承压。(1)营收同比下降原因主要是24 年春节假期相比去年同期较晚，故出货量同比有所下滑；(2)盈利能力下降系随着全资子公司金雷重装在建工程转入固定资产（24Q1 末固定资产为22.46 亿元，23Q1 末为11.33 亿元），计提折旧大幅增加；同时在市场需求阶段性不足的情况下，金雷重装产能利用率较低，单位费用成本较高（24Q1 销售期间费用率为14.06%，同/环比分别提高5.28pct/4.79pct）。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.946 billion yuan, a net profit of 412 million yuan, an increase of 16.85%, a gross profit margin of 33.04%, a net profit margin of 21.16%, and a net profit margin of 21.16%, and 1.71 pcts; the 2024Q1 company achieved revenue of 255 million yuan, a net profit of 41.56%, and achieved a gross profit margin of 23.91%. /Reduced 10.55pct/3.77pct month-on-month, net profit margin 11.43%, and 11.48pct/2.49pct month-on-month, respectively.
Overall profitability was restored in 2023, and other forging and casting businesses grew rapidly. (1) In 2023, the company achieved sales volume of 156,500 tons in the wind power industry, an increase of 6.65%, corresponding revenue of 1,618 billion yuan, benefiting from lower raw material prices and reduced production costs. The gross profit margin of the company's wind power business was 33.50%, an increase of 3.16pct; (2) Among them, due to the domestic sea breeze construction schedule, the company's wind power castings shipments fell short of expectations, but it already had a production capacity of 20MW models and smooth customer development; (3) Other forging casting businesses grew rapidly, achieving shipments of 262,000 tons, a corresponding increase of 85.2% in revenue 2.76 100 million yuan, gross profit margin of 36.75%, same increase of 4.19 pct. More than 40 new domestic and foreign customers were developed. In the future, the company plans to expand production and further expand the scale.
Market demand was phased out, and 24Q1 performance was under pressure in the short term. (1) The reason for the year-on-year decline in revenue was mainly due to the fact that the Spring Festival holiday in '24 was late compared to the same period last year, so shipments declined year-on-year; (2) The decline in profitability was due to the transfer of the wholly-owned subsidiary Jinlei Heavy Equipment into fixed assets (fixed assets at the end of 24Q1 and 1,133 billion yuan at the end of 23Q1); at the same time, in the case of insufficient phased market demand, Jinlei Heavy Equipment's capacity utilization rate was lower, and the unit cost cost was higher (the cost rate for the 24Q1 sales period was 14.06%, which increased the month-on-month, respectively) 5.28pct/4.79pct).
Demand for wind power on land and sea continued to grow throughout the year, and the second quarter is expected to reach an inflection point in quantitative profit. Looking at the overall wind power construction pace, we believe that China's wind power installations will enter the late sprint stage of the 14th Five-Year Plan construction. China's installed wind power capacity will reach 82 GW and 90 GW respectively in 2024-2025, of which the installed offshore wind power capacity is expected to be 12 GW and 18 GW. With the arrival of the installation window in the second quarter, the company's shipment volume is expected to rise significantly, unit costs are expected to drop rapidly, and profits are expected to begin to recover.
Downgraded profit forecast and maintained a “purchase” rating: The company is the leading global wind power spindle. The company's casting products mainly target offshore large megawatt fan models. The 2023 offshore wind power construction schedule fell short of expectations, which affected the company's product release progress to a certain extent. Based on this, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026, which is expected to be 554 million yuan, 703 million yuan, and 887 million yuan respectively (the original value for 24.25 and 25 was 812.811.27 million yuan) The corresponding EPS was 1.70, 2.16, and 2.69 yuan/share, respectively, and the corresponding valuations were 10 times, 8 times, and 6 times. Referring to the average valuation level of comparable companies, the company was given a 24-year 18xPE valuation to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Wind power installed capacity falls short of expectations, casting product sales fall short of expectations, and raw material prices are rising.
