Performance exceeded expectations and increased holdings. Considering fluctuations in the business travel boom, maintain the company's 2024/25/26 EPS at 0.81/0.91/1.03 yuan, give the 24-year market average valuation of 25xPE, and maintain the target price of 20.25 yuan.
Performance summary: 2024Q1 achieved operating income of 1,845 million yuan/ +11.47%, net profit of 121 million yuan/ +49.83%, and deducted non-net profit of 97.39 million yuan/ +102.19%.
Operational efficiency improvements have been remarkable, and hotel and scenic spot profits have clearly picked up. ① Scenic area profits surpassed 2019, hotel business operations improved, and profit recovery was close to 19 years, and performance performance clearly exceeded expectations; ② The market previously generally expected negative growth of RevPAR, excluding light management RevPar, which was positive year-on-year growth (+2.0%), mainly driven by ADR (+2.2%); the overall RevPAR of the same store was 1.9%, of which economic -3.2% (OCC-2.3pct, ADR +0.3%), mid-to-high-end +0.3% (OCC+1.1pct, ADR -1.5%). ③ The positive growth of overall ADR is driven by the opening of new mid-tier stores; the positive growth of economic ADR in the same store is related to continuous economic upgrading; the middle and high-end OCC drive indicates that the operation strategy is more focused on OCC.
Store openings have been steadily accelerated, and multi-dimensional improvements have supported the expected recovery. ① 205 new businesses were opened in 24Q1, and 102 economic+ high-end companies (36+66) were also better than 73 in 23Q1; ② There was a lot of asset impairment and credit impairment in 2023, and investment businesses such as Yidian and First Free Global Purchases dragged down 23 years. These improvements supported 2024 results; ③ First Travel's operating efficiency is high. Previously expected valuations were at the bottom of the downward cycle. If management data is improved, the flexible transmission mechanism for the performance side is clear, or it may be significantly fixed.
Risk warning: competition in the industry intensifies, opening stores fall short of expectations, and the cloud hotel model is unstable.