23 年分业务看，公司影院放映服务同比+37%，随电影景气在低基数基础上逐步恢复；专业显示同比-1%至4.28 亿元，基本持平，预计工程增长、商教下滑；峰米收入同比-34%，其中小米关联交易收入同比-49%，预计自有品牌收入同比-25%上下；倒推23 年光源&光机业务收入同比变化不大。24Q1公司影院放映收入+21%，单3 月车载业务即产生0.48 亿收入，预计C 端收入下滑，其余B 端业务经营稳健，随着定点转化，公司收入有望逐季向好。Incidents:
Guangfeng Technology disclosed its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: in 2023, it achieved revenue of 2,213 million yuan, net profit of -12.90% year on year, net profit of 103 million yuan, -13.61% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of 42 million yuan, -15.42% year on year, net profit of -25 million yuan, year-on-year net profit of -0.53 million yuan, net profit of -47 million yuan year-on-year. In 2023, the company plans to pay a dividend of 32 million, with a dividend rate of 31.1%. The first quarter of 2024 achieved revenue of 445 million yuan, -3.04% year-on-year, net profit of 45 million yuan, +226.21% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of 101 million yuan, +12 million year-on-year.
Vehicle models are showing their strength, and B-side basic models are operating steadily
Looking at the business segment in '23, the company's cinema screening service was +37%, gradually recovering from a low base; professional display showed a year-on-year ratio of -1% to 428 million yuan, which was basically flat, with expected engineering growth and a decline in business education; Fengmi's revenue was -34%, of which Xiaomi's revenue from related transactions was -49%, and revenue from its own brand was expected to be around -25%; in reverse, the revenue from the light source & optical machine business did not change much year over year. 24Q1's cinema screening revenue was +21%. In March alone, the vehicle business generated 48 million yuan in revenue. C-side revenue is expected to decline, while the rest of the B-side business is operating steadily. With fixed-point transformation, the company's revenue is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
C-side business contracted, profitability improved year over year
The company's gross margin was +3.6 pct year on year in '23. It is expected mainly due to the increase in the share of cinema screening services, revenue dilution and depreciation, and the increase in gross margin itself. The gross margin for 23Q4/24Q1 is -5.5/-2.9 pct year over year. It is expected mainly due to changes in the share of the C-side business with low gross margin in a single quarter. The 24Q1 sales, management, and R&D expenses ratio was -3.2/-0.4/-1.7 pct year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly due to the company actively adjusting and optimizing C-side expenditure. Combined investment income and income from fair value changes increased, and the financial expense ratio declined. The company's 24Q1 net interest rate to mother was +7.0 pct year on year. After deducting non-net profit, it was corrected year on year, and profitability improved.
The business may gradually transform, and I am optimistic about unleashing performance potential
Previously, the company had many incentives to generate expenses, and Fengmi Technology continued to invest in marketing and R&D expenses, dragging down the company's apparent performance; recently, the company continued to optimize the R&D staffing structure. On the one hand, 23H2 reduced some R&D personnel, and on the other hand, increased relevant R&D personnel according to in-vehicle business requirements and plans, while optimizing C-side marketing expenses, and the peak incentive period has passed. Considering that the company's B-side cinema and exclusive display profitability are good, we expect the company's business to gradually transform to fully unleash its performance potential.
Laser display has unique advantages and maintains a “buy” rating
The company has unique advantages in laser display technology. The automotive business is gradually being transformed at a fixed point, and the B-side basic disk business is expected to maintain steady performance, the C-end business is gradually optimized, and profitability is expected to gradually improve. Guangfeng Technology's revenue for 24-26 is estimated to be 27, 3.2, and 3.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +22%/+18%/+20%, respectively, and results of 2.2, 4.0, and 630 million yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rates are +111%/+82%/+59%, EPS is 0.5, 0.9, and 1.4 yuan respectively, and the CAGR for 23-26 is +83%.
We gave the company 50 times PE in 2024, a target price of 23.52 yuan, and maintained a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Domestic and foreign demand falls short of expectations; 2) Raw material prices and exchange rates fluctuate greatly.
