Financial Services Association, April 29: Real estate stocks collectively surged today. By the close, Vanke A had a strong rise and fall, with more than 630,000 lots closed and closed at 7.56 yuan/share, with a market value of 90.2 billion yuan. In addition, more than 20 individual stocks, including Jindi Group, Rongsheng Development, I Love My Family, Huaxia Happiness, and Dalong Real Estate, rose or stopped. In terms of ETFs, real estate-related ETFs are leading the market.

Vanke A's rise and fall again after a lapse of more than 500 days is undoubtedly one of the highlights of today's market. According to post-market data from the Dragon Tiger List, a net purchase of Fangxinxia's seat was 231 million yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Connect exclusive seat bought 227 million yuan and sold 199 million yuan, a net purchase of an institutional seat was 559.545 million yuan, and a net sale of an institutional seat was 100 million yuan.

Recently, there has been a resurgence of “warming” news in the property market, which has had an emotional catalytic effect on sector investment. Furthermore, since April, several key cities have further optimized and adjusted their property market policies, sending many positive signals to the market.

In terms of policy, since April, favorable support policies for local property markets have been introduced one after another, and the loosening of “purchase restrictions” has become a major trend. Following popular provincial capitals such as Wuhan, Hefei, Nanjing, and Changsha, Chengdu also announced the complete lifting of purchase restrictions. According to monitoring by the China Index Research Institute, up to now, in addition to Hainan Province, the four major first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as well as core areas such as Hangzhou (new housing), Tianjin, and Xi'an, have maintained purchase restriction policies.

Five major cities have “untied” property market policies since April Deadline: 2024.4.29

According to the forecast of the China Index Research Institute, from a policy perspective, the central government and supervisory authorities have made it clear that they want to further optimize real estate policies. There are strong optimization expectations for both supply and demand policies in various regions. It is expected that first-tier cities may continue to optimize purchase restriction policies, and second-tier cities are expected to completely abolish restrictive policies.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Central Plains Real Estate, said that from a policy perspective, the era of total restrictions on purchases has arrived. In the past three years, many cities have lifted purchase restrictions, such as Dongguan and Foshan. Among the first-tier cities, Guangzhou has drastically relaxed purchase restrictions, and Shenzhen has lifted purchase restrictions in the Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone. Beijing and Shanghai have also relaxed, and loosening purchase restrictions has become a trend. With the deepening of urbanization and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for improvement will continue to grow. China's policies have had a huge impact, and the strong performance of real estate stocks has reflected this. The market generally expects that major policies may be introduced during the May 1st period, and the strength of the policies will determine the speed at which the market stabilizes.

Foreign-funded institutions are also beginning to be optimistic about China's real estate market. John Lam, head of real estate research at UBS Greater China, said that with government aid, UBS has become more optimistic about the Chinese real estate industry for the first time. Lu Ting, China's chief economist at Nomura, recently reminded the market not to be blindly optimistic, believing that the real estate market may still be in an L-shaped downward phase. But at the same time, he pointed out that the real estate market may have an opportunity to clear out this year, and with the resolution of the problem, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound.

What do institutions think about investment opportunities in the real estate sector? Western Securities proposed a standardized allocation for the industry. Ping An Securities has two suggestions for investors. One is that they can wait for housing prices to stabilize with a moderate bottom position; the other is to consider that the bottom of housing prices will confirm that there will be repetition; they can wait until the bottom of the housing price hits the right side.

Western Securities said that core second-tier cities are actively promoting the implementation of supportive policies for the property market, sending a signal of relaxation. If Chengdu completely abolishes the purchase restriction policy, you can settle in if you buy a house in Nanjing. On the policy side, supply and demand sides are making concerted efforts, and trading volume is expected to pick up moderately. It is recommended that the industry be standardized.

Ping An Securities believes that in the medium to long term, when housing prices will stabilize is still the key to determining whether the sector has trending opportunities. As the base falls in the second half of the year, it is concerned about the possibility that the decline on the sales side will gradually narrow and housing prices will stabilize. There will be repeated stabilization of housing prices in the future, and the market will repeatedly confirm inflection points in housing prices, until eventually forming unanimous expectations, so there will also be opportunities for the sector to get on the right side when the time comes. Overall, there are currently two suggestions for investors. One is to consider that the downside risk in the sector is limited, so you can wait for housing prices to stabilize; the other is to consider that the bottom of housing prices will confirm that there will be repetition, and investors can wait for housing prices to bottom and get on the right side.