① How do institutions view the performance of the Hong Kong stock market after a sharp rise? ② What is the reason for the rise in cars? ③ Why are oil and gold weakening today?
Financial Services Association, April 29 (Editor: Hu Jiarong) The May Day holiday is approaching, and today's Hong Kong stock market has not continued its sharp rise from last Friday. Specifically, the three major indices showed strong performance at one point in the morning, but the trend diverged in the afternoon. At the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.54% to close at 17746.91 points; the Technology Index fell 0.13% to close at 3713.32 points; and the State-owned Enterprises Index rose 0.21% to close at 6282.86 points.
Note: The performance of the Hang Seng Index
How do institutions view the Hong Kong stock market's sharp rise and then fall?
First, let's take a look at the reasons for this round of rise in the Hong Kong stock market. CICC pointed out that the recent strong rebound in the Hong Kong stock market has mainly benefited from three aspects: first, active capital impetus, which has brought a sharp rise above expectations; secondly, macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate profits have remained stable without major fluctuations; and finally, policy expectations and eventual factors have had a certain catalytic effect on the market.
However, regarding the sustainability of the market after the sharp rise, CICC also pointed out that since the rapid rise in Hong Kong stocks is mainly driven by capital, this upward method may quickly overdraw market momentum, so a continuous inflow of long-term capital is needed to provide follow-up support.
Furthermore, considering the rapid rotation between market segments last week, the degree of market overbought according to technical indicators, and the decline in the share of short sales transactions, these all suggest that market sentiment may already be too optimistic. In particular, the Hang Seng Index is facing an important technical resistance level around 18,000 points, which may lead to technical adjustments in the market in the short term.
Today's market
Major indices of Hong Kong stocks diverged, and internal market performance was also divided. Among them, individual stocks such as real estate, cement, insurance, and automobiles led the market. At the same time, individual stocks such as petroleum and gold showed a slight decline.
Most real estate stocks strengthened, building materials and insurance followed the rise
The first is real estate stocks. By the close, Shimao Group (00813.HK), Sunac China (01918.HK), and Ocean Group (03377.HK) were up 60.56%, 28.32%, and 22.81% respectively.
Note: Performance of real estate stocks
In terms of news, property markets in many places have recently once again shown positive results. The Chengdu Real Estate Market Leading Group Office yesterday issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing Policies and Measures to Further Optimize the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market”. Starting April 29, commercial housing projects in Chengdu will no longer implement notarized housing selection, and enterprises will sell them independently.
Boosted by the trend in real estate stocks, cement and insurance stocks also strengthened.
Building materials cement stocks are closely related to the rise and fall of the real estate market. By the close, Asia Cement (00743.HK), Conch Cement (00914.HK), and China Building Materials (03323.HK) were up 5.21%, 4.59%, and 4.30% respectively.
Note: The performance of building materials cement stocks
Some of the investment targets of insurance stock related companies are also related to real estate. By the close, AIA (01299.HK), China Taibao (02601.HK), and Xinhua Insurance (01336.HK) were up 6.11%, 4.43%, and 3.25% respectively.
Note: Performance of insurance stocks
Trade-in boosts auto stock performance
Benefiting from “trade-in”, most Hong Kong auto stocks rose. By the close, Zero Sports Auto (09863.HK), NIO - SW (09866.HK), and Ideal Auto - W (02015.HK) rose 8.22%, 2.59%, and 2.43%, respectively.
Note: The performance of auto stocks
In terms of news, the Ministry of Commerce and 7 other departments have clarified financial subsidy policies for automobile trade-in. From the date the rules are issued until December 31, 2024, individual consumers will be given a one-time fixed subsidy for scrapping passenger cars with national 3 or below emissions or new energy passenger vehicles registered before April 30, 2018, and purchasing new energy passenger cars/2.0L and lower fuel vehicles, including a subsidy of 10,000 yuan for the purchase of new energy passenger vehicles and 7,000 yuan for the purchase of fuel vehicles.
Guojin Securities pointed out that the strength of the trade-in policy exceeded expectations. Previously, the market was concerned about the sustainability of automobile sales and price wars this year. Under the protection of policies, the domestic automobile boom is expected to exceed expectations again this year.
Oil stocks are affected by expectations of lower oil prices
By the close, CNOOC Oilfield Services (02883.HK), CNPC (00857.HK), and China Petrochemical (00386.HK) were down 4.91%, 3.18%, and 2.71% respectively.
Note: The performance of oil stocks
In terms of news, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will officially open. Agencies generally believe that the price of refined oil products will fall for the second time in 2024. During the current pricing cycle, international crude oil prices first fell and then rose. On the supply side, the geographical conflict has gradually abated, but instability still exists. A number of OPEC+ oil producers have stated that they will firmly push for production cuts, and the pattern of tightening supply will continue.
Most gold stocks weakened
By the close, Shandong Gold (01787.HK), China Gold International (02099.HK), and Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) were down 3.83%, 3.41%, and 0.93% respectively.
Note: Performance of gold stocks
CICC pointed out that it believes that gold is overdrawn in the short term, but the interest rate cut transaction is not over; the central point is 2,400 to 2,500 US dollars/ounce; long-term logic can be used as a basis for additional allocation when opportunity costs are low, including partial demand for de-dollarization. Whether the global monetary system is undergoing its third anchoring will have a major impact on the pricing of assets, including gold.
Southbound funding
The southbound capital inflow was maintained today, amounting to nearly HK$3 billion. Since this month, there has been a cumulative net inflow of HK$44.965 billion.
Note: Southbound Funding's performance since this month
Individual stock news and changes
[Zheng Coal Machinery rose nearly 10%, net profit returned to mother in the first quarter increased by more than 30% year-on-year]
Zheng Coal Machinery (00564.HK) rose 9.83% to close at HK$12.96. According to the announcement, the group achieved operating income of 9.665 billion yuan during the period, an increase of 4.93% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1,042 billion yuan, an increase of 33.08% over the previous year.
[New Oriental fell nearly 7% and high investment put pressure on the company's profit margin]
New Oriental-S (09901.HK) fell 6.85% to close at HK$63.95. According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, New Oriental's further investment in Oriental Selection has compressed its profit margins in the third fiscal quarter, and this impact is likely to continue into the fourth fiscal quarter and the next fiscal year. Minsheng Securities also holds a similar view. It is expected that the influence of Oriental Selection on New Oriental will continue until the fourth quarter.