As the performance period comes to an end, risk appetite is expected to shift to the media industry. It is recommended to focus on three directions.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that as the performance period comes to an end, risk appetite is expected to shift to the media industry. It is recommended to focus on three directions: 1) AI tool or model iteration is expected to bring investment opportunities; 2) focus on marginal tenders in the May 1st and content sectors; 3) In the long run, in the context of the new “National Nine Rules”, attention should be paid to companies with stable operation, continuous dividend/repurchase capabilities, and business growth potential.
Recommended targets: 1) On the AI side, it is recommended to focus on targets, data copyright parties and IP parties related to AI applications, and the 51st box office performance of content targets that are expected to rise marginally. Individual stocks: Optical Media (300251.SZ), Wanda Film (002739.SZ), and Kaiying Network (002517.SZ). 2) On the Internet side, focus on Internet companies with marginal fundamentals and the logic of going overseas. Individual stocks: Meituan (03690) and Pinduoduo (PDD.US).
The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:
Iteration of AI tools or models can be expected to bring investment opportunities. AI applications are expected to actually be implemented in 24, and may have an impact on the financial reporting side. The direction of future breakthroughs may be in 3D models, AI generation videos, and various vertical AI applications. Guojin Securities believes that with the continuous improvement of domestic copyright protection at the legislative and enforcement levels, the value of AI corpus will continue to increase. At the same time, the increasing demand for corpus under the iteration of large models further highlights the importance of corpus, and that it is more difficult to publicly obtain high-quality video corpus than text corpus. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of AI applications and the emergence of popular models. In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to focus on continuing to iterate on AI tools, targets using AI tools, and mapping targets, IP parties, and copyright parties of popular AI tools.
Pay attention to the marginal tenders in the May 1st file and content section. On the film and television side, the May Day holiday is approaching, so keep an eye on box office performance. Both supply and demand for offline movie viewing have resumed. Currently, “Peace and Riot Force” and “Howl's Moving Castle” are scheduled for May 1st. Individual stocks suggest focusing on: Wanda Film, Happy Blue Ocean; the film and television production section suggests focusing on targets with strong content schedules this year, individual stocks: Light Media, Wanda Film, and Bona Pictures. In terms of games, the 23-year results have basically been implemented. Looking ahead to 24, the performance of various game companies is expected to diverge, mainly due to differences in the pace of product launch and post-launch performance. It is recommended to focus on companies with marginal improvement in subsequent performance and strong certainty or strong performance.
In the long run, in the context of the new “National Nine Rules”, attention should be paid to companies with stable operation, continuous dividend/repurchase ability, and business growth potential. Judging from the sector attributes, some companies in the publishing sector and the radio and television sector are more in line with the above requirements. Guojin Securities said that the main business performance and operating cash flow of the publishing sector company are stable, and there is potential for future expansion and epitaxial development of the education business. Although some listed companies have lost performance in the radio and television sector, the leading targets have steady business and high cash reserves, and the radio and television sector's network asset value potential has yet to be tapped.
Internet: TechNet stocks have entered the valuation repair stage, and we look forward to further performance in the future
Stage 1: Valuation repair phase. As geopolitical relationships ease and Hong Kong stock policies warm up, the Hong Kong stock internet has entered the valuation repair stage after going through the early stages of killing the valuation. This stage is the overall restoration of Hong Kong stock internet valuations, and most companies can benefit.
Stage 2: Performance growth premium supplement. Under current market sentiment, fundamentals and shareholder returns are important factors in the continuing market. At this stage, valuation repairs have basically been completed, and shareholder return measures such as fundamentals, repurchases, and dividends compete in importance, and the market may diverge. Fundamental targets such as Tencent, Meituan, and Bilibili with strong support or marginal improvement may continue the trend.
Stage 3: Expected overseas valuation added. Currently, user dividends in the domestic market have peaked, internal volume is intensifying. Going overseas is expected to broaden the company's business boundaries, and offshore content companies and water shovel companies are expected to benefit.
Risk warning
Risk of content launch and performance falling short of expectations; risk of macroeconomic operation falling short of expectations; risk of AI technology iteration and application falling short of expectations; risk of policy supervision; statistical errors.