GAC GROUP(2238.HK):IN-LINE 1Q24 EARNINGS
GAC GROUP(2238.HK):IN-LINE 1Q24 EARNINGS
GAC Group (GAC)'s 1Q24 results were largely in line with our prior estimates and we maintain our FY24E net profit forecast of RMB5.4bn. We are more conservative than management about Aion's sales volume and profitability, as we believe that Aion needs quality growth (brand upscale, overseas expansion etc.) in FY24E to lay out foundation for long-term development. We are of the view that Trumpchi's PHEV solid sales growth could be overlooked by investors. It appears to us that its margins could also be resilient.
廣汽集團（GAC）24年第一季度的業績與我們先前的估計基本一致，我們維持了54億元人民幣的 FY24E 淨利潤預期。對於 Aion 的銷量和盈利能力，我們比管理層更爲保守，因爲我們認爲 Aion 需要 FY24E 的質量增長（品牌升級、海外擴張等）來爲長期發展奠定基礎。我們認爲，投資者可能會忽視傳祺的插電式混合動力汽車穩健銷售增長。在我們看來，其利潤率也可能具有彈性。
1Q24 earnings in line. GAC's 1Q24 revenue and GPM were 2% and 0.7ppt higher than our forecasts, respectively. Such beat was offset by its higher- than-expected SG&A expenses. Equity income of RMB1.8bn in 1Q24 was about RMB150mn lower than our estimates. Accordingly, GAC's net profit of RMB1.2bn in 1Q24 was about RMB166mn lower than our prior forecast. We estimate Aion's net loss (100% consolidated) in 1Q24 was about RMB100mn, higher than our projection.
24 年第一季度的收益保持一致。廣汽集團24年第一季度的收入和GPM分別比我們的預測高出2％和0.7個百分點。這種增長被其高於預期的銷售和收購費用所抵消。24年第一季度18億元人民幣的股票收益比我們的估計低約1.5億元人民幣。因此，廣汽集團在24年第一季度淨利潤爲12億元人民幣，比我們先前的預測低約1.66億元人民幣。我們估計，Aion在24年第一季度的淨虧損（合併 100%）約爲1億元人民幣，高於我們的預期。
Aion's profitability on track, Trumpchi's margins appear to be resilient. Although the company targets sales volume of 0.65mn units and breakeven at net level for Aion in FY24E, we maintain our prior forecasts of 0.5mn units and net loss of RMB2.2bn at the 100% consolidated level in FY24E. We believe that brand upscale and overseas expansion could be more crucial than profitability this year. Trumpchi continued to make profit in 1Q24 despite the price war, according to management. It appears to us that Trumpchi PHEVs' GPM could be more resilient than expected. Management expects Trumpchi's net profit to rise substantially YoY in FY24E.
Aion的盈利已步入正軌，傳祺的利潤率似乎具有彈性。儘管該公司的目標是 FY24E 的銷量爲65萬輛，實現Aion的淨盈虧平衡，但我們維持先前對50萬輛和22億元人民幣淨虧損的預測，按照 FY24E 的合併水平計算，淨虧損爲人民幣22億元。我們認爲，今年的品牌高檔和海外擴張可能比盈利更爲重要。管理層表示，儘管發生了價格戰，但傳祺在24年第一季度繼續盈利。在我們看來，傳祺插電式混合動力汽車的GPM可能比預期的更具彈性。管理層預計，在 FY24E 中，傳祺的淨利潤將同比大幅增長。
Equity income to remain flat in FY24E without restructuring burden. Equity income's slight miss in 1Q24 should come from GAC Toyota. We are of the view that the redesigned Camry and stimulus measures could help GAC Toyota stabilize its profitability for the remainder of the year. GAC Honda's net profit per vehicle in 1Q24 was at a similar level as that in FY23, which slightly exceeded our expectation. We maintain our FY24E equity income forecast of RMB8.3bn.
在 FY24E 中，股票收益將保持平穩，沒有重組負擔。24年第一季度股票收益略有下滑，應該來自廣汽豐田。我們認爲，重新設計的凱美瑞和刺激措施可能有助於廣汽豐田在今年剩餘時間內穩定盈利能力。廣汽本田在24年第一季度的每輛車淨利潤與23財年相似，略超出我們的預期。我們維持83億元人民幣的 FY24E 股票收益預測。
Valuation/Key risks. Accordingly, we maintain our FY24-25E NP forecasts. We have also added our FY26E estimates. We use sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation to factor in Aion's planned spin-off. We value Aion at HK$3.3 per share, based on 0.7x (unchanged) our average FY24-25E revenue estimates. We value HK$2.2 per share for JVs and associates based on 3x our average FY24-25E EPS (see details in Figure 4). We maintain BUY rating and target price of HK$5.50. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales volume and margins especially for Aion and a sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。因此，我們維持我們的 FY24-25E NP 預測。我們還添加了我們的 FY26E 估算值。我們使用部分總和（SOTP）估值來考慮Aion的分拆計劃。根據我們 FY24-25E 平均收入估計值的0.7倍（不變），我們對Aion的估值爲每股3.3港元。根據我們 FY24-25E 平均每股收益的3倍，我們對合資企業和員工每股2.2港元的估值（詳見圖 4 中的詳細信息）。我們維持買入評級和目標價5.50港元。我們評級和目標價格的主要風險包括銷量和利潤率的降低，尤其是Aion的銷量和利潤率下降以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。