TIGERMED(300347):MEANINGFUL DEMAND RECOVERY IN 1Q24
TIGERMED(300347):MEANINGFUL DEMAND RECOVERY IN 1Q24
Tigermed reported 1Q24 revenue of RMB1,660mn, down 8.0% YoY, and attributable recurring net income of RMB303mn, down 20.5% YoY, which was mainly due to the substantially reduced gains on fair value changes and investment changes (RMB8mn in 1Q24 vs RMB198mn in 1Q23). 1Q24 revenue / attributable recurring net income accounted for 19.8%/ 18.0%, respectively, of our 2024 full-year estimates, which were largely in line with its pre-COVID average level. 1Q24 revenue would be flat compared with 1Q23 if excluding COVID vaccine related revenue. Gross profit margin (GPM) in 1Q24 was 37.8%, significantly improved by 5.0ppt QoQ, driven by ongoing cost management measures as well as the MoM GPM improvements of its lab services. According to mgt., GPM would be 38.5% in 1Q24, flat QoQ, if excluding COVID vaccine related revenue. Mgt. targets to grow the attributable recurring net income by 25-30% QoQ in 2Q24, considering the accelerated revenue conversion from contracts and the cost control measures.
泰格醫藥公佈的24年第一季度收入爲人民幣16.6億元，同比下降8.0％，歸屬經常性淨收益爲人民幣3.03億元，同比下降20.5％，這主要是由於公允價值變動和投資變動的收益大幅減少（24年第一季度爲800萬元人民幣，而23年第一季度爲人民幣1.98億元）。24年第一季度收入/歸屬經常性淨收益分別佔我們的19.8％/18.0％ 2024年全年估計，與COVID之前的平均水平基本一致。如果不包括COVID疫苗相關收入，則與23年第一季度相比，24年第一季度的收入將持平。在持續的成本管理措施以及實驗室服務的環比GPM改善的推動下，24年第一季度的毛利率（GPM）爲37.8％，環比大幅提高了5.0個百分點。據管理層稱，如果不包括與COVID疫苗相關的收入，則在24年第一季度的GPM將達到38.5％，環比持平。考慮到合同收入轉換的加速和成本控制措施，管理部的目標是在24年第二季度將應占經常性淨收入環比增長25-30％。
Demand experiencing meaningful recovery in 1Q24. According to mgt., 1Q24 contract signings rebounded to double-digit growth, with Mar showing an acceleration compared to Jan and Feb. The upward trend has persisted into April. Specifically, orders from MNC and domestic pharma clients contributed to a notably larger proportion in total orders while orders from the U.S. and Australia remain robust. Encouragingly, there are signs of recovery in orders from domestic biotech firms, thanks to the recovery of biotech funding. Tigermed's BD team will continue to focus on exploring opportunities from MNC and domestic pharma clients.
需求在24年第一季度經歷了有意義的復甦。據管理層稱，24年第一季度的合約簽訂量反彈至兩位數增長，3月份與1月和2月相比有所加速。上升趨勢一直持續到4月。具體而言，來自跨國公司和國內製藥客戶的訂單在總訂單中所佔的比例明顯更大，而來自美國和澳大利亞的訂單仍然強勁。令人鼓舞的是，由於生物技術資金的恢復，國內生物技術公司的訂單有恢復的跡象。Tigermed的BD團隊將繼續專注於探索跨國公司和國內製藥客戶的機會。
Strengthening cost control. Tigermed plans to continue its cost control on SG&A expenses and GPM optimization. Mgt. indicated that, with its asset- light business model, Tigermed possesses ample leverage on cost controls, which, for instance, include increasing the utilization of decentralized clinical trial (DCT) platforms (applied in ~20% projects as compared with ~17% by end-2023), establishing integrated teams within specific therapeutic areas, and reallocating personnel across departments as needed.
加強成本控制。Tigermed計劃繼續對銷售和收購費用和GPM優化進行成本控制。Mgt. 表示，憑藉其輕資產業務模式，Tigermed在成本控制方面擁有充足的槓桿作用，例如，包括提高分散式臨床試驗（DCT）平台的利用率（應用於約20％的項目，而到2023年底約爲17％），在特定治療領域內建立綜合團隊，以及根據需要在各部門之間重新分配人員。
Globalization remaining a high priority. In the global market, Tigermed strategically serves Chinese companies targeting global market, as well as overseas local clients with limited access to international CRO services. The company has recruited a local BD team in the U.S and is currently engaged in multiple projects with U.S. local clients. Tigermed intends to further expand team sizes in the U.S. and India to enhance its global operation.
全球化仍然是高度優先事項。在全球市場上，Tigermed戰略性地爲瞄準全球市場的中國公司以及獲得國際CRO服務的機會有限的海外本地客戶提供服務。該公司已在美國招募了一支當地的BD團隊，目前正在與美國當地客戶合作開展多個項目。Tigermed打算進一步擴大在美國和印度的團隊規模，以加強其全球業務。
Maintain BUY. We trim our TP from RMB68.57 to RMB66.82, based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.95%, terminal growth: 2.0%), to factor in the slower earnings projection and uncertainties in demand recovery pace. We forecast Tigermed's revenue to grow 11.3%/ 16.2%/ 20.6% YoY and attributable recurring net income to grow 11.9%/ 20.8%/ 25.6% YoY in 2024E/ 25E/ 26E, respectively.
維持買入。根據10年期差價合約模型（WACC：10.95％，終端增長：2.0％），我們將目標從68.57元人民幣下調至66.82元人民幣，以考慮收益預測放緩和需求復甦步伐的不確定性。我們預計泰格醫療的收入將在2024E/25E/26E分別增長11.3％/16.2％/20.6％，應占經常性淨收入將分別同比增長11.9％/20.8％/25.6％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。