Source: Gelonghui
Recently, real estate stocks have experienced a rebound at the bottom.
Today, Hong Kong A real estate stocks continued to rise. The A-share real estate development sector index rose for 2 consecutive trading days, and Hong Kong domestic real estate stocks rose 25% over 7 trading days.
As of press release, many individual stocks in the A-share real estate sector have risen or stopped.$China Fortune Land Development (600340.SH)$,$Risesun Real Estate Development (002146.SZ)$,$Beijing Dalong Weiye Real Estate Development (600159.SH)$,$Hubei Fuxing Science and Technology (000926.SZ)$,$Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure (000965.SZ)$,$Langold Real Estate (002305.SZ)$,$Hua Yuan Property (600743.SH)$Rise and stop.
Even the big brother in the industry$China Vanke Co.,Ltd. (000002.SZ)$They all went up and down. The latest report was 7.56 yuan/share, with a turnover of 3.367 billion yuan and a total market value of 90.2 billion yuan. Vanke's last rise and fall dates back to November 11, 2022.
In addition to the suspension of trading of domestic housing stocks in Hong Kong stocks$EVERGRANDE (03333.HK)$und$COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK)$Furthermore, individual stocks have risen across the board.$SHIMAO GROUP (00813.HK)$It surged more than 60%,$SUNAC (01918.HK)$Up more than 30%,$CIFI HOLD GP (00884.HK)$,$AGILE GROUP (03383.HK)$Up more than 25%,$CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)$,$LOGAN GROUP (03380.HK)$Up over 15%.
According to the news, property market policies across the country have been further relaxed, and several hot provincial capitals have liberalized purchase restrictions.
Relaxation of purchase restrictions+property market trade-in
Yesterday, Chengdu issued a notice. Starting April 29, housing transactions throughout the city will no longer review housing purchase conditions such as household registration and social security, will no longer limit the number of units purchased, and will no longer implement notarized house selection.
Since then, hot provincial capitals such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Hefei, Nanjing, and Changsha have successively introduced policies to fully liberalize housing purchase restrictions.
In addition to Hainan Province, among the core cities, the four major first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, and core areas such as Hangzhou (new housing), Tianjin, and Xi'an still maintain purchase restriction policies.
Currently, the national property market is still bottoming out, and more first-tier/second-tier cities are expected to follow up on optimized regulation policies in the future.
On the other hand, in order to increase sales volume and boost the economy, many cities have implemented property market trade-in policies.
On April 27, the Nanjing State-owned Housing Construction Group launched a pilot “trade-in” campaign for existing housing. It piloted “trade-in” for existing housing in the six districts of the main city. The total number of pilot housing units was 2,000.
Recently, the Shenzhen Real Estate Association and the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association jointly launched the “Trade-In” “Home Exchange” campaign for commercial housing, and announced the first batch of 21 intermediaries and 13 real estate projects.
Also, according to statistics from China Housing Daily, nearly 50 cities have now expressed support for “trade-in,” and the scope of second-hand housing trade-in may continue to expand in the future.
Furthermore, UBS analysts who previously alerted Evergrande to the risk of a lightning explosion recently stated: “After three years of bearishness, we have become more optimistic about China's real estate industry for the first time due to government aid.”
However, he also said that the industry's sales volume and prices will not rise this year, but the decline will narrow.
He believes that once housing prices stabilize, demand that was suppressed in the past will return, and real estate companies are already reducing supply, and domestic housing inventories may drop significantly.
Overall, the fundamentals of the real estate industry still need to be verified by data, but the policy comes first. In addition, it has already declined a lot in the previous period, and there is a short-term rebound trend.
Left side market → right side stage
At present, institutions are generally optimistic about marginal improvements brought about by policies, but the long-term trend of improvement will still have to wait.
Fangzheng Securities believes that the real estate sector is still on the left-hand side of policy-catalyzed market, and it is expected that it will gradually transition to the right side of fundamental coordination. It is recommended to focus on ideas such as second-hand housing, scarce owned properties, and high dividends.
Ping An Securities believes that in the medium to long term, when housing prices will stabilize is still the key to determining whether the sector has trending opportunities. As the base falls in the second half of the year, it is concerned about the possibility that the decline on the sales side will gradually narrow and housing prices will stabilize. The stabilization of housing prices will be repeated, and the market will repeatedly confirm inflection points in housing prices, until eventually forming unanimous expectations, so there will also be opportunities for the sector to get on the right side when the time comes.
Ping An Securities suggests that investors should now: 1) consider that the downside risk in the sector is limited, and they can wait for housing prices to stabilize; 2) considering that the bottom of housing prices will be confirmed repeatedly, investors can wait for housing prices to bottom and get on the right side.
Individual stock suggestions focus on: optimization of land storage quality, high-quality housing enterprises with a light historical burden; at the same time, focus on leading segments such as property management, construction, brokerage, etc., and thematic opportunities such as industrial chains, guaranteed housing, and urban village renovation.
Editor/jayden