Focus on CHK and US stocks

Improved liquidity boosted the Hong Kong stock market! Can the rise continue, and how will the market develop in the future?

華西策略 · Apr 29 14:04

作者：华西证券副所长、首席策略李立峰

市场回顾：

上周港股市场领涨全球，恒生科技和恒生指数周涨幅分别达到13.43%和8.80%，恒生指数录得五连阳；行业方面，上周港股资讯科技业、医疗保健业、地产建筑业领涨。资金面，上周港股成交额明显放量，南向资金持续净流入，3月以来南向资金净买入规模超1600亿港元。外汇方面，随着3月下半月以来美元指数上行，非美货币普遍承压，其中日元汇率大幅贬值，人民币汇率相对稳定。

分析与判断：

一、全球资金配置角度来看，伴随日元汇率快速贬值，全球资金配置从日本股市转向低估值港股。近期美国公布的3月CPI、PCE数据均超市场预期，表明美国再通胀风险正在升温，投资者也正在进一步降低全年美联储降息预期。4月以来，美债利率、美元指数纷纷上行，非美货币普遍承压，其中日元贬值幅度较大引发市场关注。截至4月25日，美日10年期国债利差为380bp，较4月初走阔33个基点。

美日利差的持续走阔使得日元汇率加剧贬值，本周日元兑美元汇率突破158关口，刷新1990年5月以来的新低，日本股市相应走弱，4月以来日经225指数跌幅超6%。在此期间人民币汇率展现出十足韧性，人民币对一篮子货币保持稳定，在稳定的基础上还有一定的升值，人民币资产的相对优势显现，全球资金流向估值洼地的港股市场。

二、一季度权益类公募基金增配港股，南向资金亦持续流入港股，主要增配港股金融、能源等高股息板块。2024年一季度，主动权益类公募基金（普通股票型、偏股混合型、灵活配置型基金）对港股的配置比例为9.33%，相比上季度提升0.62个百分点。年初至今南向资金累计净买入金额持续增加，且3月以来加速流入。从南向资金行业流向来看，近一个月以来主要流向金融业、能源业等高股息板块。

三、部分海外投资者对房地产基本面预期出现改善。周五A股、港股地产股纷纷反弹，申万房地产指数单日上涨4%，恒生地产建筑业指数单日上涨3.4%。一方面，近期瑞银地产分析师对国内地产看法转向乐观，认为“中国住房需求和供应将在明年某个时候恢复到历史平均水平，中国大型地产开发商们的股票可能会出现反弹”；另一方面，年初至今各城市地产政策已加快松绑，市场对4月政治局会议的定调也抱有积极预期。

四、政策方面，近期证监会发布5项资本市场对港合作措施，有利于改善港股流动性。4月19日，中国证监会发布5项资本市场对港合作措施，包括放宽沪深港通下股票ETF合资格产品范围、将REITs纳入沪深港通、支持人民币股票交易柜台纳入港股通、优化基金互认安排和支持内地行业龙头企业赴中国香港上市。此举助力中国香港巩固提升国际金融中心地位，对港股市场投资者信心起到提振。

投资建议：人民币汇率在本轮美元走强过程中展现出十足韧性，处于全球估值洼地的港股受益。根据以上分析，我们判断流动性改善是推动本轮港股市场上涨的直接因素。一方面，在美债利率和美元指数持续上行过程中，人民币资产显现十足韧性，而日元大幅贬值和日本股市走弱，使得部分全球资金配置从日本股市转向低估值港股；另一方面，年初至今A股、港股高股息策略明显跑赢，南向资金也持续流入具备高股息率优势的港股金融、能源等板块。此外，部分海外机构看多国内房地产、证监会发布对港合作措施等事件性因素也阶段性提振投资者风险偏好。

展望后市，美联储进一步加息的可能性不大，美元指数较难突破前高，人民币相对其他非美货币资产的稳定性优势有利于中国权益市场在全球资产中取得相对收益，本轮港股行情仍有望延续。

风险提示：

海外货币紧缩超预期、国内经济大幅波动、海外黑天鹅事件等。

市场回顾

资金面与流动性

编辑/Jeffrey

Author: Li Lifeng, Deputy Director and Chief Strategy Officer of Huaxi Securities

Market review:

The Hong Kong stock market led the global rise last week. Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Index achieved weekly gains of 13.43% and 8.80% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index recorded five consecutive positives; in terms of industry, the Hong Kong stock information technology industry, healthcare industry, and real estate construction industry led the way last week. On the capital side, there was a marked increase in Hong Kong stock turnover last week. Net southbound capital inflows continued. Since March, the net purchase scale of southbound capital has exceeded HK$160 billion. In terms of foreign exchange, as the US dollar index rose from the second half of March, non-US currencies were generally under pressure. Among them, the yen exchange rate depreciated sharply, and the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable.

Analysis and judgment:

1. From the perspective of global capital allocation, along with the rapid depreciation of the yen exchange rate, global capital allocation was shifting from the Japanese stock market to undervalued Hong Kong stocks. The March CPI and PCE data recently released by the US all exceeded market expectations, indicating that the risk of further US inflation is heating up, and investors are also further lowering their expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates throughout the year. Since April, interest rates on US bonds and the US dollar index have risen one after another, and non-US currencies are generally under pressure. Among them, the depreciation of the yen has attracted market attention. As of April 25, the spread on 10-year treasury bonds between the US and Japan was 380 bps, 33 basis points wider than in early April.

The continued widening of interest spreads between the US and Japan has exacerbated the depreciation of the yen exchange rate. This week, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar broke through the 158 mark, setting a new low since May 1990. The Japanese stock market weakened accordingly. The Nikkei 225 index has fallen by more than 6% since April. During this period, the RMB exchange rate showed full resilience. The RMB remained stable against a basket of currencies. On the basis of stability, there was also a certain appreciation. The comparative advantage of RMB assets was evident, and global capital flows to the Hong Kong stock market, which was underestimated.

Equity funds increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks in the second and first quarter. Southbound capital also continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks, mainly increasing high-dividend sectors of Hong Kong stocks such as finance and energy. In the first quarter of 2024, active equity funds (common stock, partial share hybrid, flexible allocation funds) allocated 9.33% to Hong Kong stocks, an increase of 0.62 percentage points over the previous quarter. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative net purchase amount of southbound capital has continued to increase, and inflows have accelerated since March. Judging from the southbound capital industry trend, in the past month, it has mainly gone to high-dividend sectors such as finance and energy.

3. Some overseas investors' expectations on real estate fundamentals have improved. A shares and Hong Kong real estate stocks rebounded one after another on Friday. Shenwan Real Estate Index rose 4% in a single day, and Hang Seng Real Estate Construction Index rose 3.4% in a single day. On the one hand, UBS Real Estate analysts have recently turned optimistic about domestic real estate, believing that “China's housing demand and supply will return to historical average levels at some point next year, and stocks of major Chinese real estate developers may rebound.” On the other hand, real estate policies in various cities have been loosened up at an accelerated pace since the beginning of the year, and the market also has positive expectations about the setting of the April Politburo meeting.

4. In terms of policy, the Securities Regulatory Commission recently issued 5 capital market cooperation measures with Hong Kong, which are conducive to improving the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks. On April 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced five capital market cooperation measures with Hong Kong, including easing the scope of eligible products for stock ETFs under the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, supporting the integration of RMB stock trading counters into Hong Kong Stock Connect, optimizing mutual fund recognition arrangements and supporting the listing of leading enterprises in the mainland industry in Hong Kong, China. This move helped Hong Kong, China to consolidate and enhance its status as an international financial center, and boosted investor confidence in the Hong Kong stock market.

Investment advice: The RMB exchange rate has shown full resilience in this round of strengthening the US dollar, and Hong Kong stocks, which are in a global valuation depression, have benefited. Based on the above analysis, we judge that improved liquidity is a direct factor driving the rise in the Hong Kong stock market in this round. On the one hand, as interest rates on US bonds and the US dollar index continued to rise, RMB assets showed full resilience, while the sharp depreciation of the yen and weakening of the Japanese stock market have caused some global capital allocations to shift from the Japanese stock market to undervalued Hong Kong stocks. On the other hand, since the beginning of the year, the high-dividend strategies for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have clearly outperformed, and southbound capital has continued to flow into Hong Kong stock finance and energy sectors, which have the advantage of high dividend rates. In addition, some overseas institutions are bullish on domestic real estate, and eventful factors such as the Securities Regulatory Commission's announcement of cooperation measures with Hong Kong have also gradually boosted investors' risk appetite.

Looking ahead to the future market, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further. The US dollar index is difficult to break through the previous high. The stability advantage of the RMB over other non-US currency assets is beneficial for the Chinese equity market to obtain relative returns from global assets, and the current round of Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue.

Risk warning:

Overseas monetary tightening exceeded expectations, domestic economic fluctuations were significant, overseas black swan incidents, etc.

Market review

Financial aspects and liquidity

Editor/Jeffrey

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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