Incident: The company's 2023 revenue of 26.442 billion yuan decreased 4.82%; net profit to mother of 1,347 billion yuan decreased 15.71%; net profit of 1.05 billion yuan after deducting net profit of 1.05 billion yuan decreased by 16.31%. 2024Q1's revenue of $7.185 billion increased 17.92%; net profit to mother of 362 million yuan increased 2.35%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 267 million yuan decreased by 3.39%.
Since 2023Q3, revenue growth has picked up, and sales have continued to increase. On a quarterly basis, the company's 23Q1-24Q1 revenue was 60.93/65.46/68.16/69.86/7.185 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -18.64%/-18.07%/4.21%/21.26%/17.92%, and revenue growth continued to improve month-on-month; net profit to mother was 3.54/4.49/3.1.87/362 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -40.15%/-10.12%/56.54%/-33.14%/2.35%; aluminum Sales volume of processed products (including aluminum sheet, strip, foil and aluminum profiles) was 29.69/30.62/32.31/33.60/34.40 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 3.8%/-2.9%/5.6%/20.5%/15.9%, respectively.
Profit per ton increased month-on-month in 24Q1, and equity incentives boosted employee motivation. In 2023, the company achieved an output of 1,2534/18,000 tons of aluminum sheet, foil/aluminum profile, +6.07%/-14.69% year-on-year, and achieved sales volume of 124.78/14,400 tons, or +7.02%/-28.00% year-on-year. 2024Q1 achieved an output of 3447/0.48,000 tons of aluminum sheet, foil/aluminum profile, +16.73%/+11.63% year-on-year, and achieved sales volume of 33.99/0.41 million tons, +16.01%/+5.13% year-on-year. The net profit of the company's 23Q1-24Q1 single-ton aluminum processing products (based on sales volume, including aluminum sheet, foil and aluminum profile) was 1191.3/1466.4/1108.2/555.7/1052.3 yuan/ton, respectively. Among them, 23Q4 single-ton processing profit declined or competition intensified due to weak downstream demand, and domestic aluminum prices were higher than overseas aluminum prices, which damaged export product profits; while 24Q1 profit improved month-on-month, showing an upward trend in the price of aluminum ingots, the main raw material. The company released the “2024 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan (Draft)” in January 2024. It plans to grant 51.405 million restricted shares to 904 incentive recipients. This incentive is expected to further enhance the enthusiasm of the company's employees and demonstrate the determination to sustain the company's business.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 291.97/326.02/37.015 billion yuan and net profit to mother of 1,44/16.00/1,863 billion yuan in 2024-2026. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 26 was 10.98/9.91/8.51 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; increased industry competition; risk of downstream demand fluctuations.