The company released its quarterly report for the year 24. In 24Q1, revenue of 901 million yuan/yoy +89%, a recovery of 50% compared to 2019, achieved net profit of 0.24 million yuan/yoy +177%, a recovery rate of 22% compared to 2019, and net profit of 24 million yuan/yoy +240% after deducting non-return to mother net profit.
The 24Q1 gross profit margin was 20.8% /yoy-5.7pct, and the cost side improved year over year. 24Q1 company's sales/management expenses ratio was 7.6%/9.0%, respectively, and -0.5/-6.2 pct year over year, respectively. The main reason was a sharp increase in revenue scale and relatively fixed expenses. Thanks to effective control of expenses, the company's net profit margin increased by 0.8 pct to 2.7% year-on-year.
The year 24 is a year of rapid recovery in inbound and outbound travel. The company plans to speed up the restructuring of the outbound travel supply chain, deploy outbound transportation and tourism resources in advance, focus on high-value groups to further improve product levels and series, and integrate inbound tourism resources from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and national destinations to link the company's mature inbound tourism reception system of Hainan Special Administrative Region. The company continues to innovate in the cultural tourism business, and has jointly established a “tourism+” industry cooperation with Ehang Intelligence using the application of intelligent autonomous aircraft in the cultural tourism industry as an entry point.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We are optimistic about the continued recovery of the outbound travel market in the future, and the company is expected to achieve a rapid recovery as a travel operator with regional brand strength and reputation. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 64.94/78.584 billion yuan, respectively, up 91%/21%/9% year on year, and net profit to mother of 1.93/2.773 billion yuan respectively, up 180%/42%/2% year on year. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 36/25/25X, respectively, giving it a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk that residents' travel recovery falls short of expectations, and the risk that the recovery of spending power falls short of expectations.