Revenue growth and profit decline, the advantages of multiple financing channels are obvious, and the “buy” rating is maintained
Nanjing Hi-Tech released reports for the first quarter of 2023 and 2024. In 2023, it achieved revenue and net profit to mother of 4.73 billion yuan and 1.56 billion yuan, +5.5% and -35.1%, respectively. 2024Q1 achieved revenue and net profit to mother of 280 million yuan and 530 million yuan, respectively, of -76.5% and -18.0% year-on-year respectively. The proposed cash dividend for 2023 is 480 million yuan, with a dividend ratio of 31.05%, and a dividend rate of 4.4% based on the announcement date. Affected by sluggish real estate sales, we lowered 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 19.1, 22.1, and 2.46 billion yuan (the original value in 2024 and 2025 was 24.5 billion yuan and 2.86 billion yuan), EPS was 1.1, 1.3, and 1.4 yuan respectively, and the PE valuation corresponding to the current stock price was 5.8, 5.0, and 4.5 times, respectively. As an enterprise with deep roots in the Nanjing region, the company maintains a “buy” rating due to unobstructed financing channels and collaborative development of diverse businesses. Performance is expected to continue to improve.
Real estate sales are under pressure in the short term, and municipal business bucked the trend
Real estate business revenue in 2023 was 3.50 billion yuan, -3.9% year-on-year, with a carry-over gross profit margin of 9.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1 percentage points. Thanks to the high sales performance of affordable housing in 2023, the annual sales area and amount were 255,000 square meters and 1.91 billion yuan, respectively. +48.5% and +63.2% year-on-year, respectively. 2024Q1 achieved sales area and amount of 0.07 million square meters and 0.3 billion yuan respectively (all commercial housing), which was -99.5% and -95.3% year-on-year respectively. The municipal business developed steadily and achieved revenue of 1.22 billion yuan in 2023. +46.4% YoY. The equity investment business achieved investment income of 1.96 billion yuan, -18.3% year-on-year, and achieved profit and loss of 140 million yuan from changes in fair value.
Operating cash flow needs to be improved. In terms of the financial performance of accruing impairment, the company achieved net operating cash flow of 2.18 billion yuan in 2023, and the cash flow situation needs to be improved. However, there was an effective reduction in expenses. Expenses for the whole year were 380 million yuan, -20.5% year-on-year, and the cost ratio for the period was 8.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year. Net profit to mother declined year-on-year in 2023. In addition to an increase in the share of affordable housing projects carried forward with low gross margins, net profit due to asset impairment decreased by about 360 million yuan.
Continue to broaden financing channels to meet short-term capital needs
The company's financing channels are unobstructed. From 2023 to the end of the first quarter of 2024, the company issued a total of 16 medium notes and ultra-short-term bonds, with a cumulative issuance scale of 7.65 billion yuan. The coupon interest rate is between 2.35% and 3.30%, and financing costs remain low. At the same time, the Bank of Nanjing authorized the company a quota of 2 billion yuan according to market-based pricing. As of April 27, 2024, the loan balance was 500 million yuan, which can meet the company's short-term capital requirements.
Risk warning: The recovery of sales in the Nanjing market fell short of expectations, and the development of the company's equity investment business fell short of expectations.