Incidents:
Chipboard released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 830 million yuan, YoY +27%, net profit of 180 million yuan, YoY +31%; 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 200 million yuan, YoY +26%, net profit to mother of 39.76 million yuan, and YoY +18.7%.
PCB series: contrarian growth, overseas development+high-end customization+major customer strategy results. In 2023, the company's PCB series achieved revenue of 590 million yuan, +11.94%, gross profit margin of 35.4%. Against the backdrop of overall industry pressure, the company's PCB business bucked the trend, mainly due to: 1) The company accelerated overseas market development. The equipment was successfully sold to Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Australia in 2023. The business grew rapidly, and export orders performed well; 2) Seize the high-end PCB trend and increase the exposure of PCB circuits and solder mask The technical level and product market penetration rate continue to grow; 3) Expand and deepen cooperation with high-quality customers, and the customer and product coverage rate continues to increase. Looking ahead to 2024, we believe the company will continue to benefit from the high-end PCB trend and international strategy to maintain the continuous growth of the PCB business.
Pan-semiconductor: Frontier applications of multi-point layout, advanced packaging equipment achieved repeated orders. In 2023, the company's pan-semiconductor business achieved revenue of 190 million yuan, +97%, gross profit margin of 57.6%. Multi-point layout IC, MEMS, biochips, discrete power devices, etc., IC mask manufacturing, advanced packaging, display lithography, photovoltaic copper plating, etc., has accumulated high ceilings for a long time. Among them, in terms of carrier boards, the year-on-year growth rate was relatively fast in 2023; in terms of advanced packaging, in cooperation with Shaoxing Changdian and Huatian Technology, etc., it has received continuous repeated orders from leading advanced packaging customers in mainland China; in terms of mask plate making, 90nm equipment was first launched in 2023 and has been verified by clients; in terms of photovoltaics, equipment has been shipped separately to leading PV companies and overseas clients in 2023, and has been recognized by domestic and foreign PV companies.
Looking ahead to 2024, we believe that as the company's direct writing lithography equipment progresses smoothly in the fields of advanced packaging, carrier boards, etc., the company's pan-semiconductor business is expected to continue to grow at a high rate.
Investment advice:
We expect the company to achieve revenue of 11.1/15.3/2.03 billion yuan in 2024-2026, an increase of 34.0%/37.5%/33.1% year-on-year; in 2024-2026, net profit to mother of 2.6/36/51 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 45.8%/37.2%/43.5% year-on-year. Taking into account the company's leading position in direct writing lithography equipment in China, the company was given a target price of 75.58 yuan for 6 months, corresponding to 38xPE in 2024, maintaining a “buy-A” rating.
Risk warning: The risk that the overseas market for PCB direct imaging equipment falls short of expectations, the risk that technology application/new product promotion in the pan-semiconductor field falls short of expectations, and the risk that profit predictions fall short of expectations.