Incident Overview
Stone Technology's quarterly report for '24:
24Q1: Total operating income of 1,841 million yuan (YOY +58.69%), net profit of 399 million yuan (YOY +95.23%), net profit after deduction of 342 million yuan (YOY +110.03%).
Analytical judgment
Revenue side: Divided into regions, domestic market sentiment continued to pick up. According to Aowei data, domestic online sweeper sales grew 36% in 24Q1, boosted 10pct month-on-month in 23Q4, and sales of online sweepers of the Stone brand grew 30%. Combined with the company's overall revenue growth rate and domestic sales situation, overseas growth continued to be high.
Profit side: We judge that the share of high-margin overseas revenue has increased, and the continued promotion of high-end promotion has led to a high level of gross margin, the expansion of revenue scale and dilution of expenses. Net interest rates have also increased significantly under the combined influence.
24Q1 gross profit margin of 56.49% (YOY+6.65pct), net profit margin to mother 21.66% (YOY+4.05pct). In 24Q1, the company's sales/management/R&D expenses were 20.75%/2.76%/10.57%, respectively, -0.18pct/-1.67pct/-0.79pct, year-on-year, respectively.
Investment advice
Combined with the quarterly report, we adjusted the company's revenue forecast for 24-26 to 111.42/128.13/14.735 billion yuan (previous value was 102.63/118.41/13.672 billion yuan), +28.75%/+15.00%/+15.00% year-on-year respectively. In terms of gross margin, it is estimated to be 54.00%/53.50%/53.00% for 24-26, respectively. Net profit corresponding to the mother for 24-26 was 2,445/27.13/3,097 billion yuan (previous value was 2,298/25.38/2,915 billion yuan), respectively, year-on-year
+19.18%/+10.99%/+14.12%. The corresponding EPS is
18.59/20.64/23.55 yuan (previous value was 17.48/19.30/22.17 yuan). Based on the closing price of 382.30 yuan on April 26, 24, the corresponding PE was 20.56/18.52/16.23 times, respectively, maintaining an increase rating.
Risk warning
Risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; risk of price increases for raw materials; increased risk of competition.