Focus on CHK and US stocks

Capital from the south will cross the Hong Kong River again! What is the “success” of the individual stocks listed in AH and AH?

cls.cn · Apr 29 09:32

近期，港股市场迎来了新一轮的反弹。在南向新规与国际地缘风险缓解、外资中国资产情绪回暖等多重因素下，上周$恒生指数 (800000.HK)$大涨8.8%，点位创下年内新高。南向资金继续跨过香江去，自3月26日起，南向资金已经持续5周连续净流入港股市场。

图：近30个交易日南向资金净买入情况（数据截至2024-04-26）

申万宏源证券观点表示，目前是资产荒外溢到港股的机会，并称资金南下争夺定价权的主战场是AH股以及高股息。

目前在A股H股两地同时上市的个股共计149只，对于A股投资者，目前布局港股仍有一定“门槛”（通过跨境ETF、开通港股通交易等等方式），但由于A股和H股是同股同权，其业绩、AH溢价率等信息具体如何，仍然饱受关注。

AH股溢价率最高个股：弘业期货

今年以来，$恒生沪深港通AH股溢价指数 (800911.HK)$（HSAHP）定价中枢约150，上周起，在多重因素影响下，绝对与相对估值视角下均在配置区间的港股出现一定的修复、HSAHP亦修复至146-147一线。华泰证券表示，一季度地产与海外降息预期修正的双重压力或均已体现在港股定价中。

从HSAHP的历史表现来看，近期AH溢价仍然较高（港股较A股更便宜）。本周恒生沪深港通AH股溢价指数整体持续下行，但仍有部分个股溢价率超500%。

图：AH两地上市公司中溢价率较高的标的

目前AH股溢价率最高的上市公司为弘业期货。2023年，弘业期货增收27%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润却较上年降37%，为779.15万元。属同级别的期货公司中较低。此外，4月10日，弘业期货公告称股东弘苏实业近日因司法强制执行，导致通过集中竞价交易和大宗交易方式被动减少公司股份超过1%。但据中期协最新公布的期货公司资管报告，弘业期货产品规模上升较快。

AH股溢价率居其次的为$浙江世宝 (01057.HK)$，其在1月30日公布2023年净利润预增373%-437%后，当日H股大涨18%。2024年一季度，$浙江世宝 (002703.SZ)$净利润达2177.93万元，同比增长140.12%。一季报公布后，其4月26日A股股价涨3%。

AH股两地上市公司年报增长王：华电国际

AH两地上市个股中，2023年归母净利润增长居首的企业为大型综合性能源企业$华电国际电力股份 (01071.HK)$，受益于燃料价格下降及新项目投产等，其2023年归母净利润同比增长3789.00%。4月26日，华电国际发布了2024一季报，归母净利润18.62亿元，同比增长64.21%。招商证券提示，去年上半年煤价处于高位，在煤价维持较低水平的预期下，华电国际2024年上半年业绩仍有改善空间。

同样受益于煤电盈利大幅改善的AH上市公司还有$大唐发电 (00991.HK)$，其2023年实现归母净利润13.65亿元，同比扭亏为盈。天风证券预计，其清洁能源转型有望在2024年加速。

H股占总股份比例最高的AH上市公司：$建设银行 (601939.SH)$

目前，H股占总股本比例超过90%的两地上市公司为建设银行、$中国移动 (00941.HK)$与$中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)$，均为总市值超过万亿的央国企。AH两地上市的央国企行业分布与在一地上市的央国企类似，包括能源、电信、资本货物、金融、保险等。

H股占总股本比例在50%到90%之间的上市公司为$诺诚健华 (09969.HK)$、$华虹半导体 (01347.HK)$、$中芯国际 (00981.HK)$、$中集集团 (02039.HK)$、$康希诺生物 (06185.HK)$。值得注意的是，以上标的估值（PE-TTM）大多在近三年高位。

高股息配置，A股还是港股？

近期市场倾向于布局确定性，央国企高股息红利资产为重点关注方向。由于A股和H股是同股同权，两地上市高股息资产同样受关注。

自2018年市场分红改革，2019年以来的A股$红利指数 (000015.SH)$的长期收益优于港股，波动也较低；相比之下，港股资产的股息率更高，其高股息指数在港股反转初期的阶段性弹性优于A股，中等偏上（而非最高）高股息率公司的长期平均收益更占优。展望未来，随着新“国九条”推动境内资本市场更多向投资型市场转型，后续在中长期资金入市、增强市场内在稳定性等方面的增量政策仍可期待，红利策略有望进一步扩散。A股相比港股的收益特征优势有望延续，分红制度改革背景下，建议关注分红水平占优板块（银行/石油石化/煤炭等）以及分红或盈利有提升空间的企业板块（资源/出口等）；相比之下，港股对看重高股息及长期持有下税收有优惠的保险资金更具吸引力，投资建议结合分红和估值成长性预期优选个股。

编辑/Jeffrey

Recently, the Hong Kong stock market has ushered in a new round of rebound. Due to multiple factors such as new southbound regulations and mitigation of international geopolitical risks, and a recovery in foreign Chinese asset sentiment, last week$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$It surged 8.8%, and the point level hit a new high during the year. Southbound capital continues to cross the Hong Kong River. Since March 26, southbound capital has continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market for 5 consecutive weeks.

Figure: Net southbound capital purchases in the past 30 trading days (data as of 2024-04-26)

According to the opinion of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, it is currently an opportunity for assets to spill over to Hong Kong stocks, adding that the main battleground for capital going south to compete for pricing power is AH shares and high dividends.

Currently, there are a total of 149 individual stocks listed simultaneously on both A-share investors. For A-share investors, there is still a certain “threshold” for arranging Hong Kong stocks (through cross-border ETFs, opening Hong Kong Stock Connect transactions, etc.), but since A shares and H shares have the same rights, the details of their performance and AH premium rate are still receiving a lot of attention.

The individual stock with the highest premium rate for AH shares: Hongye Futures

Since this year,$Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index (800911.HK)$The (HSAHP) pricing center is around 150. Since last week, under the influence of multiple factors, Hong Kong stocks in the allocation range have recovered to a certain extent from an absolute and relative valuation perspective, and HSAHP has also been restored to the 146-147 line. Huatai Securities said that the double pressure of real estate and revisions to overseas interest rate cut expectations in the first quarter may have been reflected in Hong Kong stock pricing.

Judging from HSAHP's historical performance, the AH premium is still high recently (Hong Kong stocks are cheaper than A shares). The Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Exchange AH Premium Index continued to decline this week, but there are still some individual stocks with premium rates exceeding 500%.

Figure: The target with the highest premium rate among AH listed companies

Currently, the listed company with the highest premium rate for AH shares is Hongye Futures. In 2023, Hongye Futures increased revenue by 27%, but net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies decreased by 37% from the previous year to 7.7915 million yuan. It is lower among futures companies in the same class. Furthermore, on April 10, Hongye Futures announced that shareholder Hongsu Industrial recently passively reduced the company's shares by more than 1% through centralized bidding transactions and bulk transactions due to judicial enforcement. However, according to the latest futures company asset management report released by the Mid-term Association, the scale of Hongye Futures products is rising rapidly.

What is the next highest premium rate for AH shares$ZHEJIANG SHIBAO (01057.HK)$After announcing a 373%-437% increase in net profit for 2023 on January 30, H shares surged 18% on the same day. In the first quarter of 2024,$Zhejiang Shibao (002703.SZ)$Net profit reached RMB 21.7793 million, up 140.12% year on year. After the release of the first quarterly report, its A-share price rose 3% on April 26.

AH Shares: Top Annual Report Growth for Listed Companies in Two Places: Huadian International

Among the individual stocks listed in AH and AH, the company with the highest net profit growth due to the mother in 2023 is a large comprehensive energy enterprise$HUADIAN POWER (01071.HK)$Benefiting from lower fuel prices and the commissioning of new projects, etc., its net profit to the mother increased by 3789.00% year-on-year in 2023. On April 26, Huadian International released its 2024 quarterly report. Net profit attributable to mother was 1,862 billion yuan, an increase of 64.21% over the previous year. According to China Merchants Securities, coal prices were high in the first half of last year. With coal prices expected to remain low, there is still room for improvement in Huadian International's performance in the first half of 2024.

There are also AH listed companies that have also benefited from significant improvements in coal and electricity profits$DATANG POWER (00991.HK)$In 2023, it achieved net profit of 1,365 billion yuan to mother, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit. Tianfeng Securities anticipates that its clean energy transition is expected to accelerate in 2024.

AH listed companies with the highest proportion of H shares in total shares:$China Construction Bank Corporation (601939.SH)$

Currently, the two listed companies with H shares accounting for more than 90% of the total share capital are China Construction Bank,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$versus$CNOOC (00883.HK)$They are all central state-owned enterprises with a total market capitalization of over trillion dollars. The distribution of central state-owned enterprises listed in AH is similar to that of central state-owned enterprises listed in one place, including energy, telecommunications, capital goods, finance, insurance, etc.

Listed companies with H shares between 50% and 90% of total share capital$INNOCARE (09969.HK)$,$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$,$CIMC (02039.HK)$,$CANSINOBIO (06185.HK)$. It is worth noting that most of the above standard valuations (PE-TTM) have been high in the past three years.

High dividend allocation, A shares or Hong Kong stocks?

Recently, the market tends to have a deterministic layout, with central and state-owned enterprises focusing on high-dividend dividend assets. Since A shares and H shares have the same rights, high-dividend assets listed in both places are also receiving attention.

Market dividend reform since 2018, A-shares since 2019$SSE Dividend Index (000015.SH)$The long-term return is superior to Hong Kong stocks, and the volatility is lower; in contrast, the dividend ratio of Hong Kong stock assets is higher. The phased flexibility of the high dividend index is superior to A shares in the early stages of the reversal of Hong Kong stocks, and the long-term average return of companies with medium (not the highest) high dividend ratio is superior. Looking forward to the future, as the new “National Nine Rules” drive the transformation of the domestic capital market more into an investment market, subsequent incremental policies on medium- to long-term capital entry and enhancing the internal stability of the market can still be expected, and dividend strategies are expected to spread further. The characteristic earnings advantages of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks are expected to continue. In the context of dividend system reform, it is recommended to focus on sectors with superior dividend levels (banks/petrochemicals/coal, etc.) and enterprise sectors (resources/exports, etc.) where dividends or profits have room for improvement. In contrast, Hong Kong stocks are more attractive to insurance funds that value high dividends and preferential tax holdings for a long time. Investment suggestions prefer individual stocks based on expectations of dividends and valuation growth.

Editor/Jeffrey

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.