Incident Overview
The company released its annual report for 2023 and quarterly report for 2014:
Year 23: Total operating income of 14.647 billion yuan (YOY +6.94%), net profit attributable to mother of 977 million yuan (YOY +1.64%), net profit after deduction of 996 million yuan (YOY -0.51%).
23Q4: Total operating income of 3,892 million yuan (YOY +30.66%), net profit to mother 241 million yuan (YOY +105.07%), net profit after deduction of 195 million yuan (YOY +180.72%).
24Q1: Total operating income of 3.474 billion yuan (YOY +22.79%), net profit to mother of 173 million yuan (YOY +24.74%), net profit after deduction of 213 million yuan (YOY +131.83%).
Analytical judgment
Revenue side: Divided up the region. Since the overseas 23Q2 rectification, the second half of the year continued to maintain a high boom until 24Q1. The overseas market revenue growth rate for 23Q4/24Q1 was 52%/30%, respectively. The domestic market gradually improved, and the 23Q4/24Q1 revenue growth rate was 1%/7%, respectively. By splitting products, the company continued to see results in expanding categories. Household appliances revenue grew 20% in '23, accounting for a 2pct to 17% increase in revenue.
Profit side: Net interest rate performance in 23 was weaker than the increase in gross margin of sales expenses. Among them, due to exchange rate fluctuations, exchange income from financial expenses in '23 decreased by 160 million yuan compared to the same period of the previous year. At the same time, the total investment losses and fair value change losses in forward foreign exchange contracts/options contracts increased by 4.847,800 yuan over the same period of the previous year.
In '23, the company achieved gross profit margin of 22.74% (YOY+1.62pct), net profit margin of 6.67% (YOY-0.35pct); corresponding Q4 gross sales margin of 23.39% (YOY-0.48pct), and net profit margin 6.20% (YOY+2.25pct). The company's sales/management/ R&D expenses in '23 were 3.96%/5.87%/3.79%, respectively, +0.46pct/+0.15pct/+0.29pct, respectively; the corresponding Q4 was 4.86%/7.11%/3.65%, respectively, and -0.49pct/-0.43pct/-1.03pct, respectively.
24Q1 gross profit margin of 21.92% (YOY+0.03pct), net profit margin to mother 4.97% (YOY+0.08pct). 24Q1 cost control was effective. Sales/management/R&D expenses rates were 3.97%/5.49%/3.80%, respectively, -0.29pct/-0.78pct/-0.30pct, year-on-year respectively.
Investment advice
Based on the annual report information, we adjusted the company's revenue forecast for 24-26 to 162.44/177.48/19.522 billion yuan (the previous value was 157.11/17.387 billion yuan in 24-25), +10.90%/+9.26%/+10.00% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of gross margin, it is estimated to be 22.90%/23.10%/23.30% for 24-26, respectively. The corresponding net profit for 24-26 was 11.03/12.06/1,362 billion yuan, respectively (previous value was 11.90/1,328 billion yuan in 24-25), +12.89%/+9.36%/+12.90% year-on-year, respectively. The corresponding EPS was 1.34/1.47/1.66 yuan respectively (previous value was 1.44/1.61 yuan in 24-25). Based on the closing price of 18.17 yuan on April 26, 24, the corresponding PE was 13.54/12.38/10.96 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Post-epidemic consumption recovery falls short of expected risks; raw material price increases risk; new product sales fall short of expectations.