The company released its annual report for the year 23. 23fy's revenue was 609.4 billion yuan, yoy +6%, net profit to mother of 13 billion yuan, yoy +14%, net profit of non-return to mother of 11.7 billion yuan, yoy +13%. Among them, 23q4 had revenue of 188 billion yuan, yoy +7%, net profit of 3.5 billion yuan, yoy +24%, net profit of 2.5 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother, yoy -27%. Among them, 23q4's higher non-recurring profit and loss was mainly due to the increase in income from disposal of non-current assets. 23fy has on-hand orders of 1,847.4 billion dollars, which is 3.0 times the revenue for the same period.
The new energy business contributed to the main increase in engineering contracting. The scale of gravel sales is impressive. 23fy's engineering contracting/power investment and operation/other business revenue was 55506/240/31.5 billion, respectively, yoy +9%/+1%/-24%, respectively. In electricity investment and operation, revenue from new energy sources increased by +10% to 9.5 billion yuan. The steady increase in project contracting has benefited from the rapid expansion of the scale of new energy projects. 23fy's overseas revenue YOY +9% to $81.3 billion. 23fy holds 27.2 GW of installed capacity, +33% /+6.8 GW compared to +5.1/0.8 GW of photovoltaic/wind power installed capacity, respectively, to 7.7/8.4 GW. 23fy's green gravel sales scale is impressive, with a sales volume of 90 million tons, revenue of 4.63 billion yuan, and a unit price of 51 yuan/ton.
Q4 asset disposal made a positive contribution. The gross margin of electricity investment and operation increased the gross profit margin of 23fy by 13.2%, yoy+1.0pct; of these, 23q4 gross profit margin was 15.3%, yoy+1.9pct.
23fy engineering contracting/power investment and operation/other business gross profit margin 10.8%/44.4%/28.7%, yoy+1.0/+4.3/+5.7pct, respectively. The increase in gross margin of engineering contracting and power investment and operation is due to the expansion of the scale of new energy sources and the increase in the profitability of overseas projects, respectively. The 23fy expense ratio yoy+0.7pct to 8.8%, and the increase in exchange losses resulted in the financial expense ratio yoy+0.4pct to 1.7%. Impairment losses have increased, and the impact of minority shareholders' profits and losses has decreased. 23fy net profit margin 2.1%, yoy+0.1pct; of these, 23q4 net profit margin was 1.9%, yoy+0.3pct. 23q4 The larger increase in non-current asset disposal income contributed to a certain extent.
The transformation was effective, maintaining a “buy” rating
We expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be 6,806/7,585/854 billion yuan, YOY +12%/11%/13%, respectively, net profit to mother of 143/161/18.5 billion, YOY +10%/13%/15%, EPS of 0.83/0.94/1.08 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 12.6%.
Demand for water conservancy investment and new energy projects is booming, and the company's engineering business growth prospects are good. The scale of the power operation business is growing rapidly, and attention is being paid to the positive contribution of the gravel business. Maintain the company's 24-year target PE 10 times, corresponding to the target price of 8.32 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Strategy implementation is weaker than expected, electricity and infrastructure investment falls short of expectations, risk of impairment, and new energy business development falls short of expectations