预计收入、盈利水平持续增长，保持高股息率。公司23 年毛利率、EBIT Margin创十年以来新高，我们判断随着生产运营效率的优化，24 年盈利水平将进一步提升。因客户推出高端新品，奢华、时尚需求强劲，运动主要客户订单加强，预计24 年收入较23 年微增。公司2015-2023 年保持70%以上分红比例（剔除2020 疫情影响），假设2024 分红比例维持2023 年的70%水平，股息率有望达8% （以4/26 收盘价计）。Revenue increased in the first quarter, leading **** manufacturing companies in the growth rate of manufacturing business. The Q1 Group achieved revenue of US$340 million, up 18.9% year over year. The manufacturing business achieved revenue of $330 million, up 17.6% year over year. Compared with **** manufacturing companies, Fengtai/Yuyuan (manufacturing) /Yuqi/Zhiqiang/Ruhong/Guangyue/Juyang Q1 achieved year-on-year changes of +6.5%/-0.1%/-47.4%/+15%/+17.5%/-11%/+9.9%, respectively. With retail revenue of approximately US$12.1 million, the company has cut its brand retail layout and will further reduce the remaining joint venture business in China.
The resumption of sports orders contributed to a high increase in shipments. Q1 shipped 11.7 million pairs, up 21.9% year on year, down 16.4% from 22Q1. We believe that the increase in shipment volume is mainly driven by sports products, with growth in the rest of the product categories. The 23H1 sports category has a low capacity utilization rate due to customer inventory cuts (23 sports revenue fell 8% year-on-year, accounting for 43.2% of manufacturing revenue). We judge that orders from major sports customers will increase in 2024, demand for new products from luxury and fashion customers will be strong, and production capacity at the Solo plant in Indonesia will continue to rise. It is expected that capacity utilization will increase and shipments will continue to grow in 24 years.
The share of leisure and sports increased, resulting in a decrease in the average selling price. ASP was $27.8 per pair, down 3.5% year over year and up 3.7% from 22Q1. We believe that the decline in ASP is mainly due to ASP's lower share of orders for sports and leisure products. We judge that products ordered by high-end customers have seasonal characteristics, and the ASP for H2 order products is expected to exceed H1. The share of revenue from sports and leisure orders continues to rise, which will have a negative impact on ASP. Judging that the overall ASP for the whole year is expected to be lower than in '23.
Revenue and profit levels are expected to continue to grow, and dividend rates are maintained. The company's 23-year gross profit margin and EBIT margin hit new highs in ten years. We believe that with the optimization of production and operation efficiency, the 24-year profit level will further increase. Due to the launch of high-end new products, strong demand for luxury and fashion, and increased orders from major sports customers, revenue is expected to increase slightly in 24 compared to 23. The company maintained a dividend ratio of at least 70% in 2015-2023 (excluding the impact of the 2020 pandemic). Assuming that the 2024 dividend ratio remains at the level of 70% in 2023, the dividend rate is expected to reach 8% (based on the 4/26 closing price).
Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be US$1.61/1.80/199 million, up 13.8%/11.9%/10.5% year-on-year, and give the 2024 PE valuation 10-11X, converted to US$1 = HK$7.82, corresponding to a reasonable value range of HK$15.75-17.33 per share, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. Customer orders have declined, raw materials have fluctuated sharply, labor costs have risen, exchange rates have fluctuated, and tariffs and trade policies have changed.
