In 2023, the company achieved net profit of 797 million yuan, +539.1% YoY. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 82.64 billion yuan, +33.3% year over year; realized net profit to mother of 797 million yuan, +539.1% YoY, net profit of non-return to mother of 455 million yuan, +5208.32% YoY.
Raw materials fell, and the price spread of filament widened
In 2023, the average price of PX market was 1,035 US dollars/ton, -6% year-on-year; the average price of ethylene glycol was 4,091 yuan/ton, -10% year-on-year. The prices of filament and PTA have declined, but not as high as upstream. In 2023, the average price of filament was 7,884 yuan/ton, -3% year-on-year; the average price of PTA was 5,867 yuan/ton, -3% year-on-year. The average price difference of polyester filament was 244 yuan/ton, +16% year over year, PTA profit - 69 yuan/ton, year over year - 88 yuan/ton.
Production capacity is concentrated, and filament sales have increased dramatically
2023 is a year of expansion of the company's production capacity. In 2023, the company added a total of about 3.9 million tons of polyester filament production capacity and PTA300 million tons. The total sales volume of filament was 10.3071 million tons, +35%; of these, POY/FDY/DTY sales were 784.37/146.94/994,000 tons, respectively, +35%/+38%/+27% year-on-year; in terms of product structure, POY/FDY/DTY sales accounted for 76%/14%/10%, respectively.
Entering 2024, the expansion of production in the filament industry has clearly slowed. In 2024, 1.41 million tons of new production capacity are expected to be put in. At the same time, considering the relocation or withdrawal of some enterprises, the net growth rate of actual production capacity is limited.
Pay attention to shareholder returns and propose shareholder return plans for the next three years
The cumulative profit distributed by the company in cash in the last three years is not less than 30% of the average annual distribution profit achieved in the last three years. In specific profit distribution, the company achieved a differentiated cash dividend policy:
① If the company's development stage is mature and there are no major capital expenditure arrangements, cash distribution shall account for at least 80% of the profit distribution; ② If the company's development stage is mature and there is a major capital expenditure arrangement, cash dividends should account for at least 40% of the profit distribution; ③ Where the company's development stage is a growth period and there are major capital expenditure arrangements, the cash dividend shall account for at least 20% of the profit distribution.
Profit forecast estimate: Affected by the boom in the petrochemical industry, we lowered the company's 2024/2025 net profit forecast from 4.8/75 billion to 30.48 billion, adding a 2026 forecast of 6 billion yuan. The PE corresponding to the stock price on April 26, 2024 was 11/7/5, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of price fluctuations of major raw materials and products; risk of increased risk of industry competition; risk of slow recovery in external demand; risk of falling short of expected project progress