维持增持” 评级，维持目标价12.32 元/股，对应2024年36.78xPE、0.97xPB。公司2024Q1 营收/归母净利润47.62/9.11 亿元，同比-44.11%/-62.56%；加权平均ROE 同比-0.91pct 至0.56%，业绩低于预期。基于公司最新经营情况，我们下调公司盈利预测2024-2025 年EPS 为0.33/0.41 元（调整前为0.54/0.59 元），新增预测26 年EPS 为0.45 元。考虑到国务院表示将集中力量打造金融业“国家队”，公司持续深化“投、融、保、研”和财富管理协同联动，有望做优做强，维持目标价12.32 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The year-on-year decline in investment business has put pressure on performance; the company continues to deepen collaboration between “investment, finance, insurance, research” and wealth management, which helps to provide investors with comprehensive financial services and become better and stronger.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “increase” rating and maintain the target price of 12.32 yuan/share, corresponding to 36.78xPe and 0.97xPb in 2024. The company's 2024Q1 revenue/net profit to mother was 47.62 billion yuan, -44.11%/-62.56% YoY; the weighted average ROE was -0.91 pct to 0.56% year over year, and the performance was lower than expected. Based on the company's latest business situation, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024-2025 to 0.33/0.41 yuan (0.54/0.59 yuan before adjustment), and added the 26-year EPS forecast of 0.45 yuan. Considering the State Council's statement that it will concentrate its efforts on building a “national team” for the financial industry, the company continues to deepen collaboration between “investment, finance, insurance, research” and wealth management, and is expected to improve and become stronger, maintain a target price of 12.32 yuan, and maintain a “gain” rating.
Affected by the year-on-year decline in market conditions and the year-on-year increase in the US dollar interest rate, the company's net income from the investment business declined year on year, putting pressure on performance. 1) The net income from the company's investment business was -50.35% to 1,107 billion yuan, contributing to the increase in adjusted revenue (operating income - other business expenses) of -50.17%, putting pressure on performance; the main reason for the decline in net income from the investment business was affected by the year-on-year decline in the domestic market and the year-on-year increase in US dollar interest rates. The return on investment fell year-on-year and the valuation level of overseas assets declined. The return on investment was -0.4 pct to 0.4% year on year.
The company continues to deepen the collaboration between “investment, finance, insurance and research” and wealth management, which helps to provide investors with comprehensive financial services and become better and stronger. The State Council stated that it will concentrate on building a “national team” for the financial industry, studying and drafting action plans to strengthen the management of state-owned financial capital, and push large state-owned financial enterprises to compete against world-class financial enterprises and become stronger and better. The company has outstanding professional service capabilities, leading the private equity investment business in scale and influence in the industry. At the same time, deepening the collaboration of “investment, finance, insurance, research” and wealth management business lines will help provide investors with comprehensive financial services, and is expected to benefit from policy opportunities to “accelerate the construction of first-class investment banks”.
Catalyst: Action Plan to Strengthen the Management of State-owned Financial Capital Launched
Risk warning: The equity market fluctuates greatly; the company's impairment calculation has not improved
