Core views:
The company released its 2024 quarterly report, achieving revenue of 5.94 billion yuan, +24.6% year-on-year, net profit of 820 million yuan, +38.1% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of 790 million yuan, +40.7% year-on-year.
Revenue from all businesses has achieved rapid growth, and profitability has increased to a high level. The company's revenue in the first quarter increased 25% year on year. Excluding the combined contribution of Garbaoli in March, the company's revenue is expected to grow rapidly. Among them, gypsum board Q1 sales are expected to grow at a relatively rapid rate, and unit profit is increasing year on month. Under poor industry demand, the company bucked the trend and was resilient; profit growth rate was higher than revenue growth rate (net profit ratio 13.95%, +1.48pct year over year), mainly due to the year-on-year increase in gross margin. The gross profit margin for the first quarter was 28.65%, +1.69pct year on year, mainly due to the decline in cost and share of high-end products such as coal and protective paper upgrade. The cost rate for the first quarter was 13.43%, +0.24pct year over year. There was little change. The Garberry merger had little impact on the company's expense ratio.
Cash flow improved year over year, and it is shown that Gabrielle's balance sheet is still excellent. Q1 The company's net operating cash flow was -0.26 million yuan, +280 million yuan year on year, mainly due to the merger, and the decline in the cash ratio was greater than the decline in the cash ratio; the revenue ratio was 68%, -4 pct year on year, and the cash ratio was 81%, and -8 cpt year on year.
As of the end of Q1, the company's accounts receivable and notes were 5.1 billion yuan, +37% year over year, accounts payable and notes were +44% year over year, balance ratio 27.9%, +5.3 pct compared to the beginning of the year; accounts receivable turnover days were 53.8 days, +1.1 days year over year, accounts payable turnover days were 47.8 days, -0.1 days year on year, inventory turnover days 59.9 days, 15.5 days year on year, net operating cycle of 65.9 days, year-on-year -14.4 days, and shows that after Carbo Garbo's balance sheet balance sheet was still in debt excellent.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's net profit to be 43/57.7 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to PE of 11.7/9.8/8.8X. Referring to comparable company valuations and the company's future growth rate, we maintain the judgment that the company's reasonable value is 38.27 yuan/share, corresponding to the 2024 PE valuation of about 15X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Risk of falling downstream demand, risk of raw material prices rising too fast, risk of drastic expansion of industry production capacity; risk of integration of waterproof business.