Introduction to this report:
The company's main business has gone through the cycle and has been growing steadily. Higher gross margins drive performance beyond expectations; the incentive mechanism has been improved; the annual dividend rate is at a high level, and the capital reserve has increased its share capital. Increase your holdings.
Key points of investment:
The investment suggests that the company has deep internal business skills, steady growth in its main business, and more emerging businesses such as headlights or new energy charging piles/guns. We maintain our 24-25 profit forecast and increase our 2026 profit forecast. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 5.17/6.13/6.91 yuan, +19%/+18%/+13% year-on-year. Referring to the same industry, considering that the company's new business has high growth potential, we gave the company 27xPE in 2024, with a target price of 139.59 yuan, maintaining an “gain” rating.
The 23Q4 and 24Q1 results both exceeded expectations. The company's 2023 revenue was 15.695 billion yuan (+11.46%), net profit attributable to mother was 3.87 billion yuan (+21.37%), after deducting 3.73 billion yuan (+27.51%). 23Q4 revenue of 4,088 billion yuan (+13.34%), net profit attributable to mother was 1,057 billion yuan (+27.77%), after deducting non-1.08 billion yuan (+36.36%). The company's 2024Q1 revenue was 3.803 billion yuan (+14.06%), net profit attributable to mother was 929 million yuan (+26.27%), after deducting not 818 million yuan (+26.73%).
Special talent shareholding plans and restricted stock incentive plans were announced, and the incentive mechanism was further improved.
The two assessment goals are the same. Based on company-level performance assessment targets, the 2024 company's annual revenue target was higher than 16.377 billion yuan (+4.35%) or the net profit to mother was higher than 3.882 billion yuan (+0.31%). The company gives steady performance growth expectations. Overall, the incentive plan can be completed to a high degree, which is expected to strengthen employees' confidence and increase their motivation.
The annual dividend rate is at a high level, and the capital reserve fund is increasing the share capital. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 3.1 yuan per share to all shareholders, for a total cash payment of 2,764 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 71.41% and a dividend rate of 2.88%. The company plans to transfer 0.45 shares per share to all shareholders in a capital reserve fund.
The total share capital of the company is 892 million shares. After this increase, the total share capital of the company is 1,293 million shares.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, industry competition intensifies, overseas expansion falls short of expectations.