业绩逐季度加速，看好公司盈利能力修复：公司业绩单季度看，公司2023Q4 实现营收12.4 亿元（+41.0%），归母净利润3.00 亿元（+162%），利润环比+20.5%。可以看到，公司业绩在2023Q4 到2024Q1 开始再加速，主要因为疫情放开后需求端和原料药价格的提升，公司作为行业龙头受益。盈利能力方面，由于规模效应的体现叠加原材料成本下降，公司Q4 毛利率环比提升3.18pct 至36.31%。期间费用率随着收入增长而下滑；净利率同比提升15.2pct 至24.2%，规模效应体现，盈利能力不断增强。Key points of investment
Incident: The company achieved revenue of 4.823 billion yuan (+26.2%, in parentheses, same below); net profit of 941 million yuan (+128.6%); net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 936 million yuan (+109.6%), and net operating cash flow of 1,292 million yuan (+86.9%). The results were in line with expectations.
The company achieved revenue of 1,523 billion yuan (+19.96%) in the first quarter of 2024; net profit to mother was 353 million yuan (+101.0%), which exceeded expectations.
Performance is accelerating quarterly, and we are optimistic about the company's profitability recovery: Looking at the company's quarterly results, the company achieved revenue of 1.24 billion yuan (+41.0%) in 2023Q4, net profit of 300 million yuan (+162%), and profit +20.5% month-on-month. As can be seen, the company's performance accelerated again from 2023Q4 to 2024Q1, mainly due to the increase in demand side and API prices after the epidemic was liberalized, and the company benefited as an industry leader. In terms of profitability, the company's Q4 gross margin increased 3.18 pct to 36.31% month-on-month due to the effect of scale combined with a decrease in raw material costs. The expense ratio declined as revenue increased during the period; the net interest rate increased 15.2pct to 24.2% year over year, reflecting the effect of scale, and increasing profitability.
The synthetic biology R&D pipeline is rich, production capacity is abundant, and the project is about to be implemented: the company has established a synthetic biology research institute in Shanghai. Relying on a strong R&D team and 4 major laboratory bacteria R&D platforms, etc., it already has more than a dozen project pipelines, and some pipelines are expected to be implemented in the short term. In terms of research and development, in 2023, the Shanghai Research Institute completed strain construction and small-scale fermentation and extraction process optimization for products such as squalane, the feed additive inositol, and melatonin, a health product ingredient. In terms of production capacity, the first phase of the new synthetic biology Gongliu base is about to be built. The design capacity of the new base includes 300 tons of bisabolol, 300 tons of 5-hydroxytryptophan, 0.5 tons of ergothione, 10 tons of eckedoin, 5 tons of rhododendine, 10 tons of nocarone, 50 tons of melatonin, 500 tons of vegetable sphingosine and other raw materials; among them, bisabolol has already entered the pilot phase. The pilot phase of 5-hydroxytryptophan has been completed, and varieties such as ergothione will soon enter the pilot phase to provide the company with performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that demand for antibiotics due to post-pandemic infectious diseases exceeded expectations, we raised the company's 2024-2025 net profit forecast of 6.30 billion yuan to 1,10/1.21 billion yuan. The net profit for 2026 is expected to be 1.38 billion yuan, corresponding to the 2024-2026 PE valuation 20/18/16 times; based on the company 1) rapid recovery with liberalization demand and a good competitive pattern; 2) Synthetic biology projects such as bisabolol are about to be implemented; 3) Synthetic biology relies on 4 major chassis platforms , the follow-up pipeline is rich; the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: risk of price increase of upstream raw materials, risk of R&D risk of synthetic biology projects, risk of sales of synthetic biology projects falling short of expectations, risk of market competition, risk of loss of core technical personnel.
