关注：（1）资产质量平稳，关注前瞻指标。3 月末不良贷款率为1.15%，环比12 月末持平；3 月末拨备覆盖率313%，环比12 月末略降1.0PCT，关注贷款率环比略升17BP，至1.99%；测算不良新生成率1.11%，同比23Q1 上升9BP，但环比23A 下降3BP。（2）其他非息收入在23Q4和24Q1 营收贡献较高。公司23Q4 和24Q1 其他非息收入分别为21亿元、26 亿元，同比分别增长87%、60%，其他收支在营收中的贡献分别为6.8%、6.8%，后续随债市波动也会有所波动.（3）24Q1 存款增长乏力，存款较年初增长133 亿元，同比少增235 亿元，预计是公司为了更好平衡量和价。Core views:
The Bank of Changsha released its annual report for the year 23 and the quarterly report for 2014. 23A and 24Q1 revenue were 8.5% and 7.9%, respectively, and PPOP was 9.1% and 7.1% respectively. Net profit to mother increased 9.6% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively. The 24Q1 company's revenue growth performance was better than net profit due to mother, exceeding investors' expectations.
Highlights: (1) The decline in revenue growth is less than the growth rate of performance. On a marginal basis, the single-quarter revenue growth rate of 24Q1 was 7.9% (down 0.7 PCT from month to month), mainly a marginal recovery in net interest income (23Q4:3.0%, 24Q1:3.9%), while other non-interest income remained high year-on-year (23Q4:45.4%, 24Q1:22.9%), contributing significantly to revenue. The net profit growth rate for the single quarter fell 5.1 PCT to 5.8% month-on-month. Mainly, impairment losses continued to grow 13.1% against the backdrop of a relatively high base ratio (23Q1: +25.5%), which dragged down the profit schedule. (2) The 24Q1 net interest spread is still at a high level. Against the backdrop of a rapid decline in industry interest spreads, corporate interest spreads are still at a high level of around 2.2%. 23Q1-24Q1 estimates net interest spreads of 2.35%, 2.35%, 2.30%, 2.21%, and 2.18%, respectively. The decline in 24Q1 interest spreads was small. The estimated return on interest-bearing assets and interest-bearing debt cost ratio changed -10BP and -10BP in 23Q4, respectively. (3) The credit investment situation in Q1 was good. Loans increased by 33.9 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, an increase of 2.8 billion yuan over the same period last year. (4) Core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio has risen sharply. At the end of March, there was a month-on-month increase of 0.11 PCT to 9.70%. After the implementation of the new capital regulations, the risk-weighted asset growth rate fell from 12.2% at the end of December 23 to 7.0% at the end of March.
Focus: (1) Asset quality is stable, focus on forward-looking indicators. The non-performing loan ratio at the end of March was 1.15%, the same as at the end of December; the provision coverage rate at the end of March was 313%, a slight decrease of 1.0PCT from the end of December, focusing on a slight increase of 17BP month-on-month to 1.99%; the estimated bad generation rate was 1.11%, up 9BP from 23Q1, but down 3BP from 23A. (2) Other non-interest income contributed significantly to 23Q4 and 24Q1 revenue. The company's other non-interest income for 23Q4 and 24Q1 was 2.1 billion yuan and 2.6 billion yuan respectively, up 87% and 60%, respectively. The contribution of other income and expenditure to revenue was 6.8% and 6.8%, respectively, and subsequent fluctuations will also fluctuate due to fluctuations in the bond market. (3) 24Q1 deposit growth was weak. Deposits increased 13.3 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5 billion yuan. The company is expected to better balance volume and price.
Profit forecasting and investment suggestions: Rationalize the equity structure, release retail potential, and open up room for valuation increases. The net profit growth rate for 23/24 is 4.3%/6.2%, EPS is 1.86/1.98 yuan/share, BVPS is 16.58/18.34 yuan/share, the stock price is 4.2X/4.0X for 23/24 PE, and 0.5X/0.4X for 23/24 PB. It was given 0.6 times PB for 24 years, with a reasonable value of 9.95 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: (1) Macroeconomics declined more than expected, and asset quality deteriorated sharply. (2) Consumption recovery fell short of expectations, and deposit regularization was serious. (3) Market interest rates are rising, and transaction books are at a loss.
