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天目湖(603136):2023年客流营收复苏 转国资外延项目优化预期

Tianmu Lake (603136): Optimizing expectations for passenger flow revenue recovery to state-owned extension projects in 2023

財通證券 ·  Apr 28

Incident: Tianmu Lake released the 2023 Annual Report and the 2024 First Quarter Report. (1) In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 630 million yuan, an increase of 70.9% over the previous year, and net profit of 147 million yuan to mother, an increase of 623.9% over the previous year. (2) In the first quarter of 2024, it achieved operating income of 107 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.33%, and net profit to mother of 111 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.82%; (3) 2023 profit distribution plan: The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.536 yuan (tax included) per share to all shareholders. As of the disclosure date of this announcement, the total share capital of the company was 186,294,283 shares. The total proposed discovery dividend of 9,853,735.69 yuan (tax included) was calculated, accounting for 67.93% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023. It is proposed to transfer 0.45 shares per share to all shareholders using the Provident Fund. As of the disclosure date of this announcement, the company's total share capital is 186,294,283 shares. After this transfer, the total share capital of the company is expected to be 270,126,710 shares.

Product upgrades seize industry opportunities, and the recovery in passenger flow is driving the recovery of various businesses. In 2023, the company accelerated the iterative upgrading of existing products, optimized products such as night cruise ships, Fairy Country, and Sea World in the Shanshuiyuan Scenic Area, promoted Pingqiao Rafting and Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II projects, continuously met the diverse needs of tourists, and strengthened high-quality project reserves to seize opportunities for industry recovery. In 2023, the hotel business/ travel agency business/ Nanshanzhu Scenic Area/Water World Tourism/ Landscape Garden/ Hot springs business/ Others achieved operating income of 2.07/0.09/1.46/0.13/1.79/0.47/0.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of 45.24%/25.71%/108.85%/-9.5%/107.23%/47.71%/75.34%.

State-owned holdings join forces, and government endorsements are expected to promote resource integration. The company introduced state-owned capital through three share transfers. Currently, Liyang Chengfa has become the company's largest shareholder, with a shareholding ratio of 26.86%. The actual controller of the company is the Liyang Municipal People's Government. After the government takes shares, it is expected that the enterprise and government can achieve mutual benefits.

Under the original private enterprise system, company entry fields and regions were limited. Currently, the government has become a strong supporter of the epitaxial development of enterprises. The government can further endorse enterprises and accelerate the extension process.

Investment advice: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.11/862/991 million yuan in 2024-2026 and net profit of 1.65/1.98/231 million yuan, corresponding PE of 21.6/18.0/15.4 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: New project construction falls short of expectations; weather affects passenger flow; industry competition intensifies.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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