Jia Biyou (688089): 23-year results are in line with market expectations, 1Q24 profit margins have recovered

中金公司 · Apr 28

23 年业绩符合市场预期，1Q24 业绩略超市场预期公司公布2023&1Q24 业绩：2023 年公司收入4.4 亿元，同比+2.4%，归母净利润0.91 亿元，同比+42.0%；其中，4Q23 公司收入1.2 亿元，同比-25.7%，归母净利润0.31 亿元，同比+329.4%。1Q24 公司收入1.2 亿元，同比+33.3%，归母净利润0.24 亿元，同比+70.0%。2023 年业绩符合市场预期；4Q+1Q24 收入基本符合市场预期，1Q24 利润略超市场预期，主因毛利率及费率均有所改善。

发展趋势

4Q23+1Q24 收入合计看高基数下保持相对平稳，23 年 ARA 和DHA 维持良好增长。考虑春节错期因素，4Q23+1Q24 收入合计看同比-4.8%，小幅承压，主因高基数影响，两年复合CAGR 为15.6%，增长稳健。23 年分业务看，ARA、DHA、SA 产品收入分别同比+18.2%/+23.1%/-32.6%，ARA和DHA 保持良好增长主要受益于新国标增量贡献及公司在客户份额提升，而SA 收入承压主因下游儿童奶粉需求偏弱而个护等新业务放量尚不明显。

分地区看，23 年国内、海外收入分别同比+17.2%/-3.8%，其中海外收入承压主因海外客户新国标注册进度延迟。单看1Q24 公司收入实现良好增长，分业务看ARA 增长为主要贡献，海外收入低基数下增长恢复。

23 年毛利率相对平稳，1Q24 低基数下利润率实现改善。4Q23/1Q24 毛利率同比+8.3/+2.1ppt，主要受益于高利率的海外客户订单有所恢复。23 年毛利率同比+0.3ppt，表现相对稳健，唯季度间因客户结构变化导致毛利率波动相对较大。费用率方面，23 年销售/管理/研发费率分别同比+1.1/-3.3/+1.2ppt，1Q24 分别同比-0.4/-4.2/+0.4ppt，其中管理费率下降较多主因股权激励目标未达成下激励费用减少所致。23 年净利率恢复至20.6%，符合市场预期；1Q24 净利率低基数下同比+4.5ppt 至20.8%，实现恢复。

24 年经营环比或有望改善，关注后续海外客户业务进展。23 年公司收入受多重因素扰动表现承压，伴随海外客户拓展，我们预计24 年公司收入表现或有望逐渐好转。利润率方面，我们预计公司24 年毛利率或相对平稳，费率在收入规模效应下有望有所下降，整体看我们预计24 年利润率同比或有望小幅改善。建议关注公司国内中小客户及海外客户业务进展。

盈利预测与估值

考虑需求疲弱，下调24 年盈利预测23%至1.1 亿元，引入25 年预测1.3亿元，公司交易在22/19 倍24/25 年P/E；同时考虑市场估值下行，下调目标价43%至17 元，对应25/22 倍24/25 年P/E 和16%上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。

风险

竞争加剧、海外及新业务拓展不及预期、客户集中度偏高。

The 23-year results were in line with market expectations, and the 1Q24 results slightly exceeded market expectations. The company announced 2023&1Q24 results: the company's revenue in 2023 was 4.4 billion yuan, +2.4% year on year, and net profit to mother was 91 million yuan, +42.0% year on year; of these, 4Q23's revenue was 120 million yuan, -25.7% year over year, and net profit to mother was 0.1 million yuan, +329.4% year on year. 1Q24's revenue was 120 million yuan, +33.3% year on year, and net profit to mother was 024 million yuan, +70.0% year over year. The 2023 results were in line with market expectations; 4Q+1Q24 revenue was basically in line with market expectations, and 1Q24 profit slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to improvements in gross margin and rates.

Development trends

The total revenue for 4Q23+1Q24 showed that it remained relatively stable under a high base, and ARA and DHA maintained good growth in 23 years. Considering the Spring Festival stalled period, the total revenue of 4Q23+1Q24 was -4.8% year-on-year, under slight pressure. Mainly due to the impact of a high base, the two-year compound CAGR was 15.6%, and growth was steady. Looking at business by business in '23, ARA, DHA, and SA product revenue was +18.2%/+23.1%/-32.6%, respectively. ARA and DHA maintained good growth mainly benefiting from the incremental contribution of the new national standard and the increase in the company's customer share, while SA revenue pressure was mainly due to weak demand for downstream child milk powder, and the volume of new businesses such as personal care was not obvious.

By region, domestic and overseas revenue in '23 were +17.2%/-3.8%, respectively. Among them, the pressure on overseas revenue was mainly due to delays in registration of the new national standard by overseas customers. Looking at 1Q24 alone, the company's revenue achieved good growth. By business, ARA's growth was the main contribution, and growth resumed under a low overseas revenue base.

Gross margin was relatively stable in '23, and profit margins improved under a low base in 1Q24. 4Q23/1Q24 gross margin was +8.3/+2.1ppt year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the recovery of high-interest overseas customer orders. Gross margin in '23 was +0.3ppt year-on-year, and the performance was relatively steady. However, gross margin fluctuated relatively large during the quarter due to changes in customer structure. In terms of cost rates, the 23-year sales/management/R&D rates were +1.1/-3.3/+1.2ppt, respectively, year-on-year, and -0.4/-4.2/+0.4ppt in 1Q24, respectively. Among them, the large decline in management rates was mainly due to a reduction in incentive expenses when equity incentive targets were not achieved. Net interest rate recovered to 20.6% in '23, in line with market expectations; 1Q24 net interest rate recovered by +4.5ppt to 20.8% year-on-year under a low base.

The 24-year operation may be expected to improve month-on-month, so keep an eye on the subsequent business progress of overseas customers. The company's revenue in '23 was disrupted by multiple factors and weighed by performance. Along with the expansion of overseas customers, we expect that the company's revenue performance may gradually improve in '24. In terms of profit margin, we expect the company's gross margin to be relatively stable in 24, and the rate is expected to decline due to the revenue scale effect. Overall, we expect the profit margin for 24 to improve slightly year-on-year. It is recommended to pay attention to the business progress of the company's domestic small and medium-sized customers and overseas customers.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Considering weak demand, the 24-year profit forecast was lowered by 23% to 110 million yuan, and a 25-year forecast of 130 million yuan was introduced. The company's transaction was 22/19 times 24/25 P/E; at the same time, considering the declining market valuation, the target price was lowered by 43% to 17 yuan, corresponding to 25/22 times 24/25 P/E and 16% upward space, maintaining an outperforming industry rating.

risks

Competition is intensifying, overseas and new business expansion falls short of expectations, and customer concentration is high.

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嘉必优(688089)：23年业绩符合市场预期 1Q24利润率实现恢复

Jia Biyou (688089): 23-year results are in line with market expectations, 1Q24 profit margins have recovered

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