Introduction to this report:
The company's 24Q1 performance is in line with expectations. The revenue side of PTC's new energy equipment and home appliances is under pressure due to the pace of revenue recognition. It is expected that subsequent pressure will gradually ease, and profitability will continue to improve due to structural improvements.
Key points of investment:
Investment recommendations maintain profit forecasts and “gain” ratings. The company's 2024Q1 results are in line with expectations, and we maintain our 24-26 forecast. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 468/58,623 million yuan, and the corresponding EPS is 0.32/0.38/0.42 yuan, respectively, -27% (minus +16%)/+19%/+12%, maintaining the target price of 6.2 yuan.
The results are in line with the forecast. The company achieved revenue of 886 million yuan in 2024Q1, -3.44% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 86 million yuan, +27.14% year-on-year.
PTC for new energy equipment and home appliances may be under downward pressure. Since new energy equipment orders are in hand, new orders are mainly concentrated at 23H2. Referring to the average one-year revenue conversion confirmation cycle, we estimate that the new energy equipment business 24Q1 is under revenue pressure due to the pace of revenue recognition, and it is expected that there will be an improvement starting in 24Q2. 24Q1 We expect revenue from this business segment to be -5 to 10% year on year; Home appliance PTC business: 24Q1 Although downstream home appliance production is strong, the company as an upstream supplier may be under price reduction pressure. We estimate that due to price negotiations not being implemented, the company produced and shipped normally, but revenue recognition was delayed because the customer did not bill in 24Q1. We estimate revenue for this business segment to be around -10% YoY
Profit side: Product structure improvements drive up gross margin. The gross margin of the 2024Q1 company was 23.69%, compared with +4.41 pct: 1) PTC shovel products in household appliances gradually replaced adhesive, and manufacturing costs were optimized; 2) the supply ratio of plumbing PTC for new energy vehicles increased, which led to an increase in average shipping prices; 3) Some high-margin products in the new energy equipment business entered the revenue confirmation period.
Risk warning: Demand for downstream air conditioning weakens due to declining real estate completion, reduced equipment investment due to excessive polysilicon production, and increased competition in the NEV industry affects supplier profitability