23 年公司实现营收14.04 亿元，同比-23.75%，收入下降主要因传导原材料NMP 价格下降、行业竞争加剧以及产品结构变化，导致销售价格下降。归母净利2.97 亿元，同比-29.96%，盈利暂时承压。4Q23 归母净利润1.36亿元，同比/环比+40.80%/+89.31%，同比增长主要系因处置子公司新纳环保增加投资收益。23 年公司毛利率33.60%，同比-1.38 pct，净利率21.33%，同比-1.87 pct；期间费用率同比+4.55 pct 至15.01%，主要系专业人员增加、研发投入加大以及收入同比下降。24Q1 公司实现收入3.07 亿元，同比+10.19%，归母净利润0.54 亿元，同比+35.38%，盈利能力同比好转。Year-on-year decline in results in '23
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,404 billion yuan, -23.75% year on year, and net profit of 297 million yuan to mother, -29.96% year-on-year. The decline in the company's revenue and profit compared to the same period last year was mainly due to the continuous decline in raw material prices and intense market competition. Considering the slowdown in industry demand growth, we lowered the company's conductive paste shipment volume and unit price assumptions. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 319/4.47/564 million yuan, respectively (the value was 4.02/529 million yuan 24-25 years ago). Refer to the average PE valuation of 33 times as compared to the company's 24-year wind consensus. Considering that the company's single-wall pipe business barriers are high and profitability is strong, the company was given a reasonable PE of 33 times in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 30.59 yuan (previous value 29.26 yuan), maintaining the “gain” rating.
Profitability was under pressure for 23 years and improved in 1Q24
In '23, the company achieved revenue of 1,404 billion yuan, or -23.75% year on year. The decline in revenue was mainly due to lower NMP prices for conductive raw materials, increased competition in the industry, and changes in product structure, leading to lower sales prices. Net profit to mother was 297 million yuan, -29.96% year-on-year, and profit was temporarily under pressure. Net profit for 4Q23 was 136 million yuan, +40.80%/+89.31% yoy. The year-on-year increase was mainly due to increased investment income from the disposal subsidiary Xinna Environmental Protection. The company's gross profit margin in '23 was 33.60%, -1.38 pct year on year, net profit margin 21.33%, and -1.87 pct year on year; the cost ratio for the period was +4.55 pct to 15.01% year over year, mainly due to increased professionals, increased R&D investment, and year-on-year decline in revenue. The 24Q1 company achieved revenue of 307 million yuan, +10.19% year on year, net profit to mother of 54 million yuan, +35.38% year on year, and profitability improved year on year.
Carbon nanotube shipments grew steadily in 23, and overseas customer companies actively sold 55,500 tons of carbon nanotube conductive paste in '23, +17.58% year over year, revenue of 1,358 billion yuan, -24.78% year on year, gross profit margin of 33.75%, and -1.14 pct year on year. We estimate that it is mainly due to the increase in the share of lower-generation products and intense competition in the industry. The company is actively expanding overseas markets. The company has collaborated with well-known power lithium battery companies in Japan and South Korea to promote the application of carbon nanotube conductive paste in silicon-based anodes, and the testing situation is good. It has now been supplied to some leading Japanese customers. Two major Korean customers are being introduced, and it is expected that more overseas customers will be introduced in the future.
The employee stock ownership plan emphasizes overseas market assessments. The high-percentage dividend plan reflects confidence that the company released the employee stock ownership plan (draft) on April 10. The capital scale will not exceed 17.93 million yuan. The 24/25 performance assessment targets overseas customer sales growth of no less than 20%/40% (fixed ratio of 23 years), respectively. The estimated cost amortization for 24-26 years is 957/798/1.6 million yuan, respectively. In addition, the company announced a profit distribution plan for 23 years. It plans to distribute a discovery dividend of 103 million yuan, which is compounded by the repurchase of the company's shares in '23. The total cash dividend for the year 23 was 210 million yuan, accounting for 70.59% of the net profit returned to mother for the year. The high proportion of dividends reflects the company's confidence in continuous development and helps promote the healthy development of the company.
Risk warning: Carbon nanotube penetration rate fell short of expectations; profitability declined due to worsening industry competition; demand for single-walled tubes fell short of expectations.
