盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司2024-2026 年净利润分别为4.89、5.64、6.24亿元，分别同比+15.3%、+15.2%、+10.6%，当前收盘价对应2024-2025 年PE 为17、15 倍，公司作为陶瓷及卫浴产品龙头企业，参考可比公司给予公司2024 年20~21 倍PE 估值，对应合理价值区间10.09~10.60 元，对应2024年1.16~1.21 倍PS 估值，给予“优于大市”评级。The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: in 2023, the company achieved operating income of 7.648 billion yuan, an increase of 1.79%; realized net profit of 425 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.43%; and realized net profit of 392 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year decrease of 27.57%. 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 2,368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.41%; realized net profit of 137 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.61%; and realized net profit of 130 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year decrease of 13.91%. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 1,135 billion yuan, an increase of 2.26% over the previous year; realized net profit of 90 million yuan (23Q1 was 0.03 billion yuan); and realized net profit not deducted to mother of 106 million yuan (-016 million yuan in 23Q1).
Firmly adhere to the direction of intelligence and increase investment to create an intelligent pioneering advantage. 1) Sanitary ceramics business: In 2023, the company's sanitary ceramics business achieved revenue of 3,742 billion yuan, up 6.61% year on year, of which smart toilet revenue was 1,562 billion yuan, accounting for 20.43% of the company's revenue, up 1.94 pct year on year, mainly due to the company's continuous promotion of smart home product research and development and the launch of the “New Smart Living Proposal” in 2023. Related smart product packages include new technological products such as X7 ZOOM smart toilets and H2 smart toilets to promote smart toilets Revenue continues to grow. 2) Leading hardware: achieved revenue of 2.01 billion yuan in 2023, up 1.50% year on year; 3) Bathroom furniture: achieved revenue of 771 million yuan in 2023, down 4.56% year on year.
Promote omni-channel marketing with retail as the main focus, and improve the sales channel structure. In 2023, the company's sales model was mainly in the form of distribution and direct sales. In 2023, the company's distribution model revenue (including distribution and retail, e-commerce, home improvement and engineering) was 6.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.76%, accounting for 85.79%; the direct sales model (mainly direct e-commerce and direct engineering) revenue was 1,037 billion yuan, an increase of 20.03% over the previous year, accounting for 13.55%. In 2023, the company will continue to carry out omni-channel marketing centered on consolidating retail stores, home improvement and e-commerce channels, continuously improving service to dealers, increasing dealer satisfaction, further strengthening store image management, and promoting channel sinking and improving marketing network construction.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 4.89, 5.64, and 624 million yuan, respectively, +15.3%, +15.2%, and +10.6%, respectively. The current closing price corresponds to 2024-2025 PE is 17 and 15 times. As a leading ceramic and bathroom products company, refer to comparable companies to give the company a PE valuation of 20 to 21 times in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 10.09 to 10.60 yuan, corresponding to 1.16 to 1.21 times PS in 2024 The valuation gives a “better than the market” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand falls short of expectations, smart toilet penetration falls short of expectations, and the product structure upgrade process falls short of expectations.
