#黄金技术分析 #24K99讯 Spot gold closed down 2.3% this week, the biggest drop since December last year. FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer wrote an article on Friday (April 26) reviewing this week's gold price trend and predicting and analyzing next week's gold price trend.
Sengezer pointed out that the price of gold fell sharply on Monday, but recovered some of its losses in the second half of the week. Despite closing down the week, gold is still technically bullish. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement and US employment data may affect next week's gold trend.
Spot gold closed the week plummeted by $54.49, or 2.28%, to close at $2337.64 per ounce. Notably, spot gold closed down $64.95 on Monday, or 2.72%, the biggest one-day decline in more than a year.
Gold prices began facing tremendous bearish pressure this week, and recorded their biggest one-day decline this year on Monday, Sengezer wrote. The price of gold successfully rebounded in the second half of this week, but the weekly line was still lower. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement and US labor market data for April may drive next week's gold trend.
What happened in the gold market this week?
Sengezer said that after a relatively quiet weekend with news of the Iran-Israel conflict, the geopolitical tension eased somewhat, and the price of gold fell in a U-turn at the beginning of this week. After benefiting from safe-haven capital flows over the past few weeks and recorded impressive gains, the price of gold adjusted on Monday and plummeted 2.7% in a single day.
Earlier on Tuesday, the price of gold continued to fall, hitting its lowest level in more than two weeks (close to $2,290 per ounce). However, after the release of disappointing US PMI data, the dollar came under selling pressure, and gold recovered above $2,300 per ounce, with little change at the close of Tuesday.
The initial value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI for April fell to 50.9 from 52.1 in March. This data shows that private sector commercial activity is losing momentum. Furthermore, the basic details of the report show that investment inflation is weakening, further suppressing the US dollar. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P Global Market Intelligence), said that when evaluating the PMI survey results, “Deterioration in demand and cooling of the labor market led to a decrease in price pressure, as the growth rate of sales prices for goods and services both experienced a welcome slowdown in April.”
On Wednesday, the US dollar remained resilient against its rivals after the US Census Bureau reported a 2.6% increase in durable goods orders in March to $238.4 billion. Conversely, it is difficult for gold prices to gather momentum for recovery.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday that the US gross domestic product (GDP) annualized growth rate for the first quarter was 1.6% (preliminary estimate), less than the 3.4% increase in the last quarter of 2023, and far lower than the 2.5% market forecast. As a result, the US dollar continued to weaken, causing gold to close higher on Thursday. However, the recovery of gold is still limited because the GDP report also showed that the GDP price index (also known as the GDP price deflator) climbed from 1.7% to 3.1%, highlighting the greater impact of inflation on GDP growth.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.8% year on year in March. This figure is in line with the February increase and is higher than market expectations of 2.6%. The US dollar remains strong, making it difficult for gold to continue its recovery over the weekend.
Federal Reserve policy decisions and US non-farm payrolls data hit big next week
Sengezer indicated that the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision next Wednesday. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy interest rate of 5.25% to 5.5% unchanged. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) “Federal Reserve Watch” tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will choose to keep its policy unchanged again in June is about 90%. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to provide any new hints in its statement about the timing of the policy shift.
However, at the press conference after the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) is likely to be asked if interest rate cuts are still possible in June. Sengezer said that if Powell does not close the door to cutting interest rates in June, the initial reaction could trigger a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and boost gold.
Following the March policy meeting, Powell indicated that the strong inflation data for January and February may be due to seasonal factors. Market participants will also keep a close eye on Powell's comments on the inflation outlook.
Sengezer said that if Powell takes a worried tone about recent developments in inflation, the US dollar may remain resilient against its rivals and limit the upside of gold. Finally, if Powell downplays the disappointing first-quarter GDP data, investors may view it as a hawkish argument, making it difficult for gold to gain upward momentum.
Next Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April employment report. If the increase in the number of non-farm payrolls in the US falls significantly (for example, the data falls to close to 150,000), it may trigger a sell-off in the US dollar and trigger an immediate reaction in gold prices. Even if this data does not have a significant impact on expectations of interest rate cuts in June, it may still put heavy pressure on the dollar if investors prefer a policy shift in September. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's “Federal Reserve Watch Tool”, the market expects the possibility that the Fed will keep its policy interest rate unchanged in September is close to 40%.
Sengezer pointed out, on the other hand, if the growth in non-farm payroll data is stronger than expected, especially when wage inflation data is hot, it may increase people's expectations that the Fed will not act in September and trigger a sharp drop in gold prices before next weekend.
Gold technical outlook analysis for next week
Sengezer said that judging from the daily gold chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed to 60 after falling to 50 earlier this week, suggesting that the recent retracement was a correction rather than the beginning of a trend reversal. Furthermore, the price of gold recovered above this level after closing below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) on Wednesday, reflecting sellers' hesitation.
Sengezer said that on the upward side, $2,360 per ounce (static level) is a short-term resistance level for gold prices. If this resistance is overcome, the next resistance for gold prices is at 2,400 US dollars/ounce (static level, the end of the latest upward trend) and 2,430 US dollars/ounce (the historical high set on April 12).
(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
Sengezer added that, on the other hand, $2,300 per ounce (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which has been trending recently since mid-February) forms strong support. If it falls below this support, the next supports are at $2,280 per ounce (static level) and $2,240 per ounce (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).