Financial Services Association, April 27 (Editor Tang Yeti) As the first five-day holiday after the Spring Festival, the May Day holiday has always been a “golden week” for travel and consumption. Looking back on the Qingming holiday, travel spending and movie box office data are all impressive. In mid-late April, “May - Ticketing is as difficult as the Spring Festival travel season” and “12306 responds to May Day tickets in seconds” hit the hot lists on social platforms one after another. What's the latest information on spending trends during the “May 1st” holiday this year? This is the earnings season, and how are the performance of listed companies related to Golden Week consumption?

Travel: Influencer destinations continue to “go out of the circle”, and outbound travel is growing strongly

Since “May 1st” in 2023, domestic Golden Week travel revenue has all been better than in the same period in 2019, and customer unit prices have gradually increased during the past three “Golden Week” periods. Compared to the “Eleventh Day” holiday and the Spring Festival, the “May Day” holiday is only five days long, but judging from the current reservation situation, the popularity of “May Day” tourism this year has steadily increased from last year's high level.

According to the “2024 May Day Holiday Travel Weather Vane” released by Flying Pig on April 23, the popularity of reservations for many domestic travel services during the “May 1st” holiday this year continued to surpass the same period in 2019. The number of group travel bookings doubled compared to last year, and car rental increased more than fivefold. Outbound travel ushered in a peak of bookings, and bookings for related services recorded a strong growth of nearly 100% on the basis of a rapid rebound last year. Up to now, the number of reservations for international hotels, air tickets, car rentals, etc. has far surpassed last May Day.

Based on travel reservation data released before Tongcheng, Ctrip, and Where to Go, the 2024 “May Day” domestic travel market continued to be booming, and the long-term travel and sinking markets were structurally dominant. Since last year, tourists have actively explored and paid attention to characteristic, personalized, and niche domestic destinations, and local cultural tourism departments have also actively promoted the development of local tourism. Since 2023, niche tourist destinations such as Zibo, Harbin, and Tianshui in Gansu have been out of the ring. Previously, during the Qingming holiday, more than 200,000 people “went back to Zi to cook again”. This trend continued on May 1st. According to Ctrip data, cities such as Tianshui, Xuzhou, and Zibo became the fastest growing cities for the May 1st holiday this year.

In terms of outbound travel, judging from travel platform data, spring and autumn travel data shows that during the May 1st holiday this year, the number of outbound travel bookings nearly tripled over the same period last year. According to Ctrip's visa data, judging from the current number of applicants, the number of applicants during the “May 1st” holiday increased by more than 30% over the same period last year, and the transaction amount has already exceeded the same period in 2019.

Implemented in the travel industry chain, the revenue targets are expected to be concentrated in the OTA sector, the scenic area sector, and the hotel sector. However, it is worth noting that from the perspective of market conditions, according to Choice data, in the past 5 years, from 2 weeks before the May 1st Golden Week to 2 weeks before the May 1st holiday, and 2 weeks after the May Day holiday, the trend in the travel-related sector showed the characteristics of fewer ups and downs, and was generally lower than the Shanghai Composite Index for the same period. For example, the China Securities Travel Component Index has not seen a single increase in the past five years in the two weeks after the May Day holiday. Huaan Securities said that the post-holiday market will focus on whether the May Day consumption data can exceed expectations and extent.

Film consumption: Imported film performance improved in Q2

As of 15:00 p.m. on April 27, the pre-sale amount for the May 1st film was over 100 million. The Hong Kong film “The Siege of Kowloon Walls” later took the lead, surpassing 20 million. Pre-sales of “Peace and Riot Force”, the imported film “Spies Play House Code: White”, “No One Hot Pot Can Solve”, and the imported film “Howl's Moving Castle” also surpassed 10 million yuan.

Since 2023, the film market has gradually picked up. The summer program in '23, the New Year's Day program, and the Spring Festival program all hit new box office highs in Chinese film history. Last year, May 1st had a total box office of 1,521 billion yuan, accounting for 2.8% of the total box office in 2023. The Qingming Festival box office reached 840 million in early April 2024, setting a new Qingming box office record in Chinese film history. The agency predicts that the May 1st box office is expected to continue the recovery trend.

Currently, 9 movies are scheduled for 2024 May 1 (“Xiao Qian” withdrawn). Since the second quarter of 2024, the performance of imported films has improved. The China Merchants Securities media team anticipates that “Rise of the Planet of the Planet 3” will be scheduled on May 10, and “Doraemon” on May 31 will further boost the box office for imported films.

Picture: May 1st movie producer

Source: Cat Eye Professional Edition, compiled by Societe Generale Securities Research Institute of Economics and Finance

China Merchants Securities, in conjunction with the May 1st edition and the entire second quarter involved listed companies, recommended focusing on Wanda Films, the largest producer of the cinema market share and “Peace and Riot Force”; Bainachiten, which participated in the production of “No One Hot Pot Can Solve” and “Journey Through the Moon”; and Maogan Entertainment, a leading ticketing company that participated in the production and distribution of “Nacha 2” and “Xiao Qian”; Alibaba Pictures, which participated in the production and distribution of many movies; Chinese movies; Hengdian Film and Television, the leading theater company involved in the production of some films; and other theaters The company Jinyi Film and Television, Happy Blue Ocean, etc.

The revenue of the film and television line industry improved significantly in the 2023 reporting quarter, and many companies reversed their losses year on year. From a recent market perspective, there have been significant fluctuations in the film and television concept market recently. Take the Dongcai Film and Television Concept Index as an example. As of today, its index fell by more than 11% in April, and the amplitude exceeded 19%. Previously, film and television concepts were highly correlated with changes in the cultural media sector index, but recently the performance of the cultural media sector has continued to be influenced by the multi-modal generation capability process of AI models.

Guolian Securities said that starting in 2024, whether it's green screen imaging or role play, AI-driven cost reduction and efficiency gains have already been initially implemented in the film and television industry. The multi-modal AI large model capabilities are expected to be further improved during the year.

Social service retail: service consumption continues to be released

In the first quarter of 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total amount of 2024Q1 and social zero reached 12.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7% over the previous year. Consumption of services showed a rapid growth trend, and consumer demand for some upgraded products was also released relatively quickly. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of services and products increased by 10.0% and 4.0%, respectively, compared with 2024Q1. Among them, the country's food and beverage revenue was +10.8% year over year; retail sales of sports and entertainment products per unit above the limit increased 19.3% year over year. New e-commerce models, such as live streaming and instant retail, are also developing rapidly, which is clearly driving the growth of online consumption.

Looking back at the Qingming holiday in 2024, tourism consumption was relatively strong, which also helped the restaurant industry continue to release demand. In the upcoming May 1st Golden Week, there are also many organizations that are optimistic about the travel chain's consumption performance.

Regarding gold consumption, which is popular recently, since 2024, geopolitical uncertainty and changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have driven international gold prices to rise rapidly, boosting gold and jewelry consumption. 2024Q1. Retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry per unit above the limit in China reached 99.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5% over the previous year. Beginning in March, gold prices fluctuated after accelerating, causing end consumers to wait and see. The zero growth rate of the Gold and Silver Jewelry Company is slowing down. According to the opinion of the Caitong Securities social service team, it is expected that after the price of gold stabilizes, the part of the gold jewelry just needed will continue to be released, and terminal consumption will gradually resume.

From the perspective of market conditions, the CITIC Consumer Service Index (CI005015.WI), which focuses on the social services industry, has recently experienced adjustments, and its valuation (PE-TTM, excluding negative values) has fallen back to 0.08% of the historical quartile of the past five years.

Figure: CITIC Consumer Service Index (CI005015.WI) PE (TTM, excluding negative values) changes in the past five years

Data source: Wind

“Double earnings season” looks at the fundamentals of the holiday consumption-related industry

The end of April coincided with the peak period of disclosure of A-share annual reports and quarterly reports. From a performance perspective, Caitong Securities previously compiled statistics on the 2023 report data. The results showed that consumption style was limited by high weather conditions, and the improvement in the profitability of the travel chain was also ahead. In the tier 1 industry, consumer-style textile, clothing, retail, and food are in a high boom state of “ROE improvement+positive performance growth”. The same goes for the shipping industry. From the perspective of the secondary industry, in the 2023 reporting season, airports, scenic spots, cinemas, hotels, etc. in the travel chain showed the highest month-on-month improvement in ROE.

Data source: Wind, Caitong Securities Research Institute. Note: The commercial retail and social service industries are not shown in the chart. The ROE of the two industries increased by 1.4% and 0.5% month-on-month respectively in 2023Q4, and net profit to mother grew by 540% and 404% year-on-year respectively.

At the end of April, the disclosure of the first quarterly reports of listed companies is still ongoing. Judging from the current disclosure situation, the median net profit growth rate of first-tier industries such as transportation, food and beverage is currently at the top. Furthermore, before the disclosure of the A-share annual report and quarterly report was completed, the public fund's 2024 quarterly report had already been disclosed. In the industry related to holiday consumption, food and beverage returned to the largest public offering position.