维持“增持”评级。行业景气度延续，公司量增明确，上调公司24/25年EPS 为0.44/0.73 元（原为0.34/0.61 元），新增26 年预测EPS 为0.85元。考虑到公司产能相对增量较大，成长性强，给予公司2024 年18 倍PE，上调目标价至7.92 元（原为6.87 元）。Introduction to this report:
Production and sales increased rapidly, and the company's 24Q1 performance exceeded expectations. The company has a multi-project layout. 2024-2026 will usher in a period of capacity release, and growth is strong. The company's intelligent production improves quality and efficiency, strengthens brand building, and helps increase the company's value.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The industry's boom continued, and the company's volume growth was clear. The company's 24/25 EPS was raised to 0.44/0.73 yuan (originally 0.34/0.61 yuan), and the 26-year EPS forecast was added to 0.85 yuan. Considering the relatively large increase in the company's production capacity and strong growth, the company was given 18 times PE in 2024, and the target price was raised to 7.92 yuan (originally 6.87 yuan).
The 23-year results were in line with expectations, and the 24Q1 results exceeded expectations. Net profit for the year 23:50.64/ 216 million yuan, yoy +22.91%/1175.49%. Among them, 23Q4 revenue/net profit attributable to mother was RMB 13.85/ -42.57%; 24Q1 revenue/net profit to mother was RMB 14.43/ 153 million yuan, +37.58%/+1270.57% YoY, and +4.23%/+164.65% month-on-month. The high performance growth in '23 and 24Q1 is mainly due to the continued boom in the industry, the introduction of new production capacity, and a sharp increase in production and sales.
Production, sales and profitability increased significantly year over year. 24Q1 gross margin/net margin was 18.05%/10.59%, +7.55pct/ +9.52pct year over year. Both production and sales grew steadily, with 24Q1 production and sales volume of 416.38/37.48 million pieces, +84.26%/50.56% YoY, +23.64%/27.48%. The price of 24Q1 sky glue/synthetic rubber/carbon black/steel cord was +6.4%/+1.4%/+8.5%/+3.6% compared to the fourth quarter of '23.
Multiple bases and multiple projects go hand in hand, and intelligent manufacturing sets sail. GM Co., Ltd. is implementing the “5X” strategy. Currently, it has three bases in Wuxi, Thailand, and Cambodia. The Wuxi base is currently constructing 9 million semi-steel and 100,000 off-highway tire projects; the Thai base is under construction of Phase II 500,000 all-steel and 6 million semi-steel projects; and the Cambodian base is under construction of the second phase of 750,000 all-steel and 3.5 million semi-steel projects.
2024-2026 will usher in a period of release of the company's production capacity, and the company's growth is strong. The company continues to promote the upgrading of the international, intelligent and green industry; the all-steel smart factory accelerates industrial quality and efficiency; the vulcanization “black light workshop” achieves 24-hour uninterrupted production, greatly improving production efficiency and saving energy consumption; the company focuses on brand building, and multi-brand comprehensive technologies such as “Qianlima and Red Rabbit Horse” have reached the international advanced level and won wide recognition in the market.
Risk warning: Projects under construction fall short of forecast; trade policy risks; sharp fluctuations in raw materials and shipping prices; risk of exchange rate changes.
