Brief performance review
On April 26, 2024, the company released its annual report and quarterly report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 6.872 billion yuan, an increase of 39.0% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 1,031 billion yuan, an increase of 20.5% over the previous year.
1Q24 achieved revenue of 1,554 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.0%; net profit to mother was 218 million yuan, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year.
Management analysis
The volume and profit of the energy storage and power plant sales business increased, and gross profit declined due to changes in the revenue structure: in 2023, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 28.4%, -7.86PCT year on year. The decline in gross margin was mainly due to an increase in the share of low-margin energy storage and power plant sales businesses. Among them, the intelligent electricity distribution business revenue was 2.48 billion yuan, +1.77% YoY, +2.53 PCT; energy storage and energy saving revenue was 15.1 billion yuan, +253.6% YoY, gross profit margin 16.1%, +5.95PCT year on year; power plant sales revenue was 1.30 billion yuan, up 167.0% year on year, gross profit margin 11.48% year on year, and +9.39PCT year on year.
Project reserves are abundant, and sector collaboration accelerates resource acquisition: the company's photovoltaic business and energy storage business have strong synergy, and has stronger comprehensive competitiveness in the fields of “new energy+energy storage” project development, design, product provision, operation and maintenance. In 2023, the company signed strategic cooperation agreements with various partners such as Prologis New Energy, Huawei, China Power Investment, etc., and established good cooperative relationships with upstream and downstream enterprises. By the end of 2023, the company had accumulated reserves of 6 GWh of energy storage projects, 4 GW of PV projects, and contracted over 12 GW of power plant projects for operation and maintenance.
Improve quality and efficiency, and reward shareholders with a high percentage of dividends: The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.303 yuan (tax included) per share to all shareholders, totaling 618 million yuan (tax included), and the corresponding dividend rate will reach 4.75%. The company's dividend payment rates for 2021-2023 were 48.64%, 42.45%, and 59.97%, respectively, maintaining high dividends for three consecutive years to give back to shareholders.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
According to the company's annual report, quarterly report and our latest judgment on the industry, the 2024-2025 net profit forecast was adjusted to 12.00 (-32%) and 13.75 (-36%) billion yuan. The estimated net profit to mother in 2026 is 1,552 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 11, 9, and 8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Competition in the industry intensified; project implementation fell short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuated.