Core views:
Clean energy revenue is growing rapidly, dragging down the tank & food business. The company issued a voluntary disclosure announcement for the first quarter, achieving revenue of 4.635 billion yuan in 24Q1, or -6.8%; of these, revenue from clean energy, chemical tanks, and liquid food was 32.55/5.62/818 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of +21.2%/-58.6%/-11.7%. Looking at the segment segment, water clean energy, hydrogen energy, and LNG vehicle bottles achieved rapid growth in the first quarter. According to the company's 24Q1 performance promotion materials, the water clean energy sector grew at an impressive rate of 730 million yuan, +48.6% year over year; hydrogen energy business revenue of 169 million yuan, up 74.2% year on year; and LNG vehicle bottle revenue of 250 million yuan, a sharp increase of nearly 15 times year on year.
The outlook for orders is more optimistic, and the water & gas cylinder business continues to expand. According to the voluntary disclosure announcement, the company signed new Q1 energy, tank and food orders of 62/38/890 million yuan, respectively, or +100%/-71%/-20% year-on-year. According to the company's 24Q1 performance promotion materials, the contract price continues to rise, and the flexible driving effect of water energy on the overall business is obvious; onshore energy went hand in hand at home and abroad, and overseas orders surged 61% year on year, and LNG gas cylinders are also in a boom expansion channel.
New orders for cans increased month-on-month, and in-hand food orders were sufficient to guarantee annual performance. Judging from orders and inventory, the tank business has gradually entered the bottom improvement range. According to the company's 24Q1 performance promotion materials, Q1 tank orders were +13% month-on-month. Currently, customer suitcases are accelerating, inventory has returned to normal levels, and Q2 is expected to usher in an inflection point in performance. After the completion of the two major projects in the food sector, North America and Mexico, Q1 revenue declined in a short period of time, but current orders are still plentiful, and Q1 on-hand orders increased 22.5% year over year.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect net profit of $13/17/2.4 billion to be returned to the mother in 24-26, giving the 24-year PE 15x. After the exchange rate, the corresponding reasonable value is HK$8.97 per share, taking into account the discounted valuation of Hong Kong stocks (the exchange rate is calculated at 0.91), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Demand for LNG is sluggish; oil prices fluctuate; hydrogen energy development falls short of expectations; exchange rate fluctuations.