As you might know, GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) recently reported its quarterly numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$380m were in line with what the analysts predicted, GATX surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.03 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the four analysts covering GATX are now predicting revenues of US$1.55b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.0% to US$7.64. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.56 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$138. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on GATX, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$148 and the most bearish at US$122 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting GATX's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that GATX is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple GATX analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for GATX (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.