Downstream inventory backlogs in the overseas household storage business, and fluctuations in market demand affected 24Q1 performance in 2023 to achieve revenue of 5.44 billion yuan, yoy +23.6%; net profit to mother of 845 million yuan, yoy +28.8%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 818 million yuan, yoy +34.5%. Gross profit margin 32.89%, yoy+1.10pct, net profit margin 16.02%, yoy+0.52pct.
2024Q1 revenue was 831 million yuan, yoy -41%, qoq -39%; net profit to mother was 134 million yuan, yoy -42%, qoq -13%; gross profit margin 33.4%, yoy+1.3pct, qoq+0.7pct; net profit margin 16.2%, yoy-1.2pct, qoq+4.9pct. The company's revenue level declined in the first quarter, mainly due to temporary inventory backlogs from downstream channel customers in the overseas household storage business and phased fluctuations in market demand. Shipments of household storage products declined.
23 years of business spin-off:
1. Smart power supply and data center products: achieved revenue of 2,509 billion yuan, yoy +14.87%, gross profit margin 38.46%, up 2.05pct year on year.
2. Optical storage and charging products and system products: achieved revenue of 2,692 billion yuan, yoy +38.33%, gross profit margin 26.49%, an increase of 1.9 pct over the previous year.
3. New energy products: Achieved revenue of 38.47 million yuan, YOY -21.99%, gross profit margin 62.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.65pct.
4. Supporting products: Achieved revenue of 162 million yuan, yoy -9.7%, gross profit margin of 32.77%, up 3.25% year on year.
Data center product development has evolved with the times, and the energy storage business is affected by downstream customer inventories 1) In the data center industry, related products independently developed and produced by the company have been diversified and integrated, and has launched products that are highly compatible with computational power data centers. For future high-density scenarios with a single cabinet load of 20-60kw, the company also has a corresponding cold plate liquid cooling series integrated solution.
2) In the new energy industry, the company signed a 1,415 billion yuan energy storage contract with customer A in '23, with a total execution amount of 1,115 billion yuan by the end of 23. Affected by the customer's high inventory volume, the execution period of the contract was extended compared to the plan.
Profit forecasting
In terms of data centers, we expect the company to accelerate the development of hyperscale data centers and edge data centers along with the further development of cloud computing, AI, and mobile internet at the industry level; in terms of new energy, the company has deployed various core products such as high-power photovoltaic inverters/energy storage PCS, industrial and commercial energy storage systems, and household energy storage systems, which are expected to offset the impact of downstream customer inventory of household storage products from multiple product dimensions.
Based on the company's 24Q1 business performance, we adjusted the company's 24-26 revenue to 65.3, 77.0, and 9.09 billion yuan (the original value was 9.39 billion yuan in '24), net profit of 9.2 billion yuan, 11.4 billion yuan (original value was 1.50 billion yuan in '24), yoy +8.5%/+23.9%/23.6%, corresponding to current valuations of 13, 11, and 9XPE.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market competition risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, risk of PV inverters and energy storage shipments falling short of expectations, industry installed capacity falling short of expectations.