Event: On April 26, 2024, the company released its 2024 quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 6.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.31%; net profit to mother of 583 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.81%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 603 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.44%; and basic earnings per share of 0.29 yuan/share, a year-on-year decrease of 66.28%.
Performance was impaired due to falling coal prices and a decrease in production and sales of self-produced coal. 24Q1 was affected by a combination of factors such as falling coal market prices and declining sales volume of self-produced coal products, which led to loss of profits. In terms of expenses, the total four expenses of the 24Q1 company decreased by 121 million yuan, a decrease of 3.61%. Of these, sales/management/R&D/finance expenses were -0.67/+0.24/+0.31/-0.09 billion yuan, respectively, -41.52%/+7.27%/+87.99%/-15.95% compared with the same period last year.
Coal production and sales both declined month-on-month, and gross margin per ton of coal increased slightly month-on-month. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved raw coal production of 7,514,600 tons, down 29.30% year on year and 14.96% month on month; commercial coal sales volume was 9.2947 million tons, down 25.09% year on year, down 29.01% month on month; the comprehensive sales price of commercial coal was 667.17 yuan/ton, down 21.33% year on year and 5.60% month on month; ton coal cost was 448.21 yuan/ton, up 0.76% year on year and 5.34% month on month; gross profit of tons of coal was 218.96 yuan/ton, down 45.70% year on month, month on month Increased by 6.14%; gross profit margin per ton of coal was 32.82%, down 14.73 pcts year on year, and up 0.17 pct month on month.
Self-produced coal sales declined sharply, and gross margin declined year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's self-produced coal sales volume was 5.4615 million tons, down 43.74% year on year, down 30.90% month on month; the price of self-produced coal was 662.31 yuan/ton, down 17.11% year on year, up 9.37% month on month; the cost of self-produced coal tons was 308.37 yuan/ton, up 2.39% year on year, up 10.42% month on month; the gross profit margin for self-produced coal tons was 53.44%, down 8.46% year on month; the gross profit margin for self-produced coal tons was 53.44%, down 8.87 pc year on year t , down 0.45pct from month to month.
Trade coal sales increased year-on-year and declined month-on-month, and gross margin per ton of coal rose slightly month-on-month. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's trade coal sales volume was 3.833,200 tons, up 41.90% year on year, down 26.14% month on month; trade coal sales price was 674.09 yuan/ton, down 34.21% year on year, up 0.36% month on month; trade coal tonne cost was 647.44 yuan/ton, down 32.64% year on year and 0.11% month on month; gross profit margin for traded coal tons was 26.65 yuan/ton, down 58.01% year on year and 13.40% month on month; gross profit margin for traded coal tons was 3.95%, down 2.24pct year on year. The month-on-month increase was 0.45 pct.
Investment advice: The company plans to produce no less than 33 million tons of coal in 2024. Considering the decline in the company's planned production, we expect the company's net profit to be 36.13/47.09/4.984 billion yuan in 2024-2026, equivalent to 1.82/2.38/2.51 yuan/share for EPS, respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 26, 2024 is 8/6/6 times, respectively. Maintain a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Coal prices have dropped sharply; mine production has fallen short of expectations.