Alice announced its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The company achieved operating income of 2,018 billion yuan in 2023, +155.1% year over year; net profit to mother of 644 million yuan, +393.5% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 606 million yuan, +663.7% year over year.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 743 million yuan, +168.6% year on month; net profit to mother of 306 million yuan, +777.4% year on month, +30.9% month on month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 301 million yuan, +1424.0% year on year and +33.1% month on month.
The dosage of vometinib continues, and the cost side is well controlled. On the revenue side, Alice's revenue grew rapidly in 2023, and continued to increase in the first quarter of 2024. The main reason was that the first-line and second-line treatment indications of the company's core product, vometinib mesylate tablets, were included in the national health insurance catalogue during the reporting period, driven by a sharp increase in product sales. On the profit side, the company's gross profit margin for the first quarter of 2024 was 95.4% and the sales expense ratio was 42.1%, down 16.1 percentage points from the same period last year, up 1.0 percentage point from the fourth quarter of 2023; the management expense ratio was 4.8%, down 3.5 percentage points from the same period last year and 2.3 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2023; and the R&D expense ratio was 8.6%, down 14.3 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2023. The company's cost side is well controlled, which drives the net interest rate level to rise.
The R&D pipeline is being actively promoted, and outreach cooperation is also progressing. In terms of independent research and development, the company actively explores the clinical advantages of vometinib and thoroughly explores the multi-scenario application of vometinib: in April 2023, the phase III clinical trial IND for first-line treatment of vormetinib 20 exon insertion mutation NSCLC was approved; in April 2023, the IND phase Ib clinical trial of vormetinib for patients with advanced EGFR or HER2 mutations in NSCLC was approved; in August 2023, vometinib compared to platinum-containing chemotherapy for first-line treatment of EGFRPACC mutations or Phase III clinical trial IND for patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer with EGFR L861Q mutation was approved. In addition to vometinib, the KRAS G12D selective inhibitor AST2169 lipid independently developed by the company and with global intellectual property rights was approved for clinical trials in March 2024. In terms of epitaxial cooperation, the company cooperated with Heyu Pharmaceutical to introduce ABK3376, which targets the C797S mutation. In November 2023, the company cooperated with Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals to obtain an RET inhibitor product - Phuket? Exclusive commercial promotion rights in mainland China. Lay the foundation for the company's future development.
Maintain a “Highly Recommended” investment rating. Considering the future growth pace of vormetinib, we expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 1.07 billion yuan, 1.42 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan, respectively, +65%, +33%, and +15% compared to the same period. The corresponding PE is 20x, 15x, and 13x, respectively, maintaining a “highly recommended” investment rating.
Risk warning: risk of R&D falling short of expectations, risk of sales falling short of expectations, risk of increased competition, risk of changes in payment policies, etc.