维持增持。Q1营收 3.8 亿元/-2.46%，归母净利 1.87 亿元/-16.5%，扣非1.96 亿元/-8.53%符合预期。考虑到新项目处于前期培育期，下调预测2024-26 年EPS 至1.1/1.18/1.29 元(原1.21/1.34/1.44 元)增速2/7/9%；维持目标价16.19 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
Q1 Changes in fair value have an impact on profits. Traditional stores are operating steadily, and new projects are fully invested, and they are optimistic about long-term development and continued execution of high dividends.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. Q1 revenue of 380 million yuan/ -2.46%, net profit attributable to mother of 187 million yuan/ -16.5%, less 196 million yuan/ -8.53% was in line with expectations. Considering that the new project is in the early stages of development, the forecast for 2024-26 EPS will be reduced to 1.1/1.18/1.29 yuan (originally 1.21/1.34/1.44 yuan) growth rate 2/7/ 9%; the target price will be maintained at 16.19 yuan to maintain the increase.
Net profit performance was hampered by changes in fair value, and operating cash flow was still impressive. 1) Net income from changes in fair value in Q1 - 17.13 million yuan (3.62 million yuan in the same period last year), net income from investment of 24.14 million yuan (32.94 million yuan in the same period last year), and net profit to mother was basically the same year on year after deducting the impact of the above projects; 2) gross profit margin of 50.9%/-9.17pct. We expect cost increases due to factors such as depreciation and amortization of new projects, not 51.7% /-3.43pct; 3) Expense rate for the period 4.6% /-0.24pct, of which sales/financial management expenses 0.31/4.32/- respectively 0.03%, 0/-0.26/+0.02pct year-on-year, respectively; 4) Net operating cash flow 270 million yuan/ +69.8%.
Promote investment in the Tianfu project and look forward to increasing revenue and profit after entering a stable operation period. 1) The new Tianfu project has completed construction and inspection work. According to the overall position of headquarters port and live broadcast port, it includes diversified business formats and one-stop industrial services, and is making every effort to gradually implement investment, revenue and profit contributions; 2) Chengdu has good consumption vitality, population base and real estate resilience, and new and second-hand housing transactions rank among the highest in the country in 2023. As a leading regional decorative building materials and home furnishing distribution enterprise, the company will lay a solid foundation for steady growth in the medium to long term.
We expect the high dividend policy to continue, and the current valuation is still undervalued. 1) The average dividend for the year 2023-23 is 808 million yuan, with a dividend rate of over 100% and a dividend rate of about 7.6%. We judge that we may continue the higher dividend policy in the future; 2) Considering the high revaluation value of the company's property assets (the self-operated store has a construction area of more than 1.1 million square meters and is located in the core location), it is currently only 11 times PE.
Risk warning: New project investment falls short of expectations, old market leases fall short of expectations, dividends fall short of expectations, external environment puts pressure on demand for home building materials, etc.
