Core views:
Pilot Intelligence publishes its annual report for '23 and quarterly for '24. In '23, the company achieved revenue of 16.628 billion yuan, an increase of 19.35% over the previous year. Achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1,775 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.45%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 1,725 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.57%. In the first quarter of '24, the company achieved operating income of 3.311 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14% over the previous year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 565 million yuan, an increase of 0.21% over the previous year.
Core lithium battery equipment business revenue continues to grow. By product, in the company's main business in 2023, lithium battery intelligent equipment revenue was 12.642 billion yuan, up 27.12% year on year, accounting for 76.03% of revenue, gross profit margin 38.69%; intelligent logistics system revenue was 1,431 billion yuan, down 15.55% year on year, accounting for 8.61% of revenue, gross profit margin 6.88%; PV intelligent equipment revenue was 1,028 billion yuan, up 121.85% year on year, accounting for 6.18% of revenue and 16.78% gross profit margin.
The rate of expenses increased during the period, and the increase in accruals affected short-term profits. In 2023, the company's expenses for the period were $3,092 million, an increase of 680 million yuan over the same period last year; the rate for the period was 18.59%, up 1.28 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, sales expenses increased 9.8% year on year, management expenses increased 39.74% year on year, R&D expenses increased 24.31% year on year, and financial expenses changed from -657.301 million yuan in the same period last year to -394.18,200 yuan. The company's asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses totaled 1.162 billion yuan in '23, an increase of 97% over the previous year.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 35.53/ 41.19/ 4.917 billion yuan, respectively. Referring to comparable companies, considering the company's leading position, we gave the company a PE valuation of 16 times the net profit due to mother in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of 36.29 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of macroeconomic and downstream demand fluctuations; risk of bad debts in current accounts receivable; management risks caused by scale expansion.